AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ddfaf4e5c6f5e89f0d0ef22f0f57dfc71fde634f0778ced695e70e181f20b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 7,056$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…6348backed Yes | 1c | 3,234$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…1e45backed Yes | 1c | 3,092$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…f102backed Yes | 1c | 2,481$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…7454backed Yes | 1c | 2,399$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…2ce1backed Yes | 1c | 2,307$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…9aaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…cb51backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,007$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1c…37f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,842$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…ef76backed Yes | 1c | 1,824$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd080…0b70backed Yes | 1c | 1,773$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f6aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…1e67backed Yes | 1c | 1,644$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…7b31backed Yes | 2c | 1,558$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…69f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,512$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…62a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,509$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…cec3backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b144backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…9544backed Yes | 1c | 1,362$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,272$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…605cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,184$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…3df8backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…bd61backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…55d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,153$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…3a94backed Yes | 3c | 1,114$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…5339backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…f25abacked Yes | 3c | 1,080$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,016$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e02bbacked Yes | 3c | 916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…5048backed Yes | 3c | 894$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…2aa4backed Yes | 2c | 892$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…bac4backed Yes | 3c | 858$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a4…f982backed Yes | 2c | 846$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…fccdbacked Yes | 2c | 817$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780b…3f34backed Yes | 2c | 802$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 2c | 790.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…713cbacked Yes | 2c | 695$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…6d3bbacked Yes | 10c | 676$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…e33ebacked Yes | 10c | 671$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e9…9a92backed Yes | 10c | 654$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 3c | 514.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…52f9backed Yes | 3c | 509$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…afe8backed Yes | 3c | 447$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.