AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b5121b8b8da7d63cc127f7ecdd613477623707a023d581e05197c085fc41db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 8,330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,652$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,913$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 5c | 2,064$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 4c | 1,216$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 7c | 829.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 5c | 441.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 440.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 8c | 360.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 4c | 312.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 9c | 301.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…79f7backed Yes | 4c | 299.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 5c | 241.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 5c | 228.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 7c | 216.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…959fbacked Yes | 7c | 195.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 187.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 8c | 142.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…dd43backed Yes | 9c | 117.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 12c | 89.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.