AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3acb657b2330b6bb889fa473653a06c67e8e40ae1807adce83ee075ab91d161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 13,196$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216c…d671backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 5,738$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…9830backed Yes | 6c | 3,542$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…96bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,171$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…cfa0backed Yes | 8c | 2,866$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…a8a5backed Yes | 1c | 2,694$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…cb92backed Yes | 1c | 2,568$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…7115backed Yes | 6c | 2,515$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…2874backed Yes | 6c | 2,459$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…9cefbacked Yes | 1c | 2,443$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…aeefbacked Yes | 1c | 2,291$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…ddc6backed Yes | 6c | 2,218$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,193$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…85c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,146$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…959fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,702$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…d31ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,675$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…f692backed Yes | 6c | 1,480$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79be…c0abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,471$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…885ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,325$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…7739backed Yes | 5c | 1,269$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…eff2backed Yes | 6c | 1,266$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…dc69backed Yes | 5c | 1,258$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…9cfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,234$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,229$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…bdb0backed Yes | 1c | 1,215$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…b196backed Yes | 6c | 1,171$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…cc67backed Yes | 6c | 1,138$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…ac11backed Yes | 6c | 1,123$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…93efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,096$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca31…dbcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,015$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc10…f1a5backed Yes | 6c | 999$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…11b6backed Yes | 1c | 981$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ab34backed Yes | 6c | 938$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…3318backed Yes | 1c | 920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…40fabacked Yes | 4c | 902.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954a…b92abacked Yes | 6c | 849$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…5af4backed Yes | 6c | 827$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…1f3dbacked Yes | 1c | 797$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…a909backed Yes | 6c | 778$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…d928backed Yes | 6c | 777$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…cf78backed Yes | 4c | 772$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…ac74backed Yes | 6c | 759$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…28c4backed Yes | 4c | 751$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…d697backed Yes | 6c | 749$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…dfa2backed Yes | 1c | 734$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…a153backed Yes | 5c | 724$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…222ebacked Yes | 6c | 714$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…b4ebbacked Yes | 6c | 703$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…c3fcbacked Yes | 4c | 699$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…3f13backed Yes | 6c | 697$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…7a46backed Yes | 6c | 684$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…5d00backed Yes | 6c | 545$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 520.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…d7cabacked Yes | 4c | 511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…4706backed Yes | 10c | 505$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf62…9043backed Yes | 3c | 467$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…1ebbbacked Yes | 6c | 411$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 4c | 382$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…868abacked Yes | 6c | 380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…55e6backed Yes | 6c | 338$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…abdfbacked Yes | 6c | 314$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa698…9a8abacked Yes | 5c | 306$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fe…738dbacked Yes | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.