TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$565,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$567,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 608 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes79c16,020$12,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,427.193444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No17c13,855$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No16c13,472$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.313928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52c…6924backed No20c12,410$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c9,957$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No13c8,870$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.82650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+87.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No22c8,573$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes80c7,987$6,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No19c7,979$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes76c7,476$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee8…dbb1backed No30c6,232$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No7c6,000$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No13c5,765$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8579…0ba2backed Yes71c5,709$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c1…2727backed Yes73c5,570$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes79c5,505$4,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No26c5,078$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No0c4,990$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No36c4,582$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No19c4,441$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c46…781dbacked Yes75c4,352$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986a…1af9backed No27c4,031$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No16c3,992$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.82540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c9…8b3fbacked Yes77c3,971$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x941e…9775backed Yes65c3,952$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.43366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed No31c3,527$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked No23c3,436$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45f8…c554backed Yes74c3,400$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed No7c3,323$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No14c3,232$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…9e08backed No30c3,218$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No17c2,900$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes77c2,826$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d8…ea95backed No6c2,735$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes80c2,451$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No17c2,376$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc695…6438backed No39c2,263$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…365abacked No26c2,176$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8d…b980backed No40c2,130$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No1c1,999$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No1c1,988$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes77c1,952$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c1,890$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No17c1,842$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes78c1,836$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab9…9741backed No34c1,762$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7f…fe62backed No6c1,732$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No11c1,719$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab8a…451bbacked No6c1,639$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c1,638$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7170%0 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed No7c1,568$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No9c1,489$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.171625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+100.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed No34c1,472$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4493…3ec1backed No36c1,434$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed No1c1,407$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefab…b927backed No26c1,400$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed No14c1,385$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No17c1,370$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No13c1,334$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No20c1,322$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0290%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…b79fbacked No6c1,305$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No19c1,300$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No15c1,284$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,255$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.14180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No8c1,211$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.142626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc099…d97abacked No3c1,207$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes76c1,200$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No14c1,164$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.292524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes61c1,109$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.01616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No26c1,011$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No17c1,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9915…3704backed No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7875…4ed7backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked No34c999.94$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes69c998.02$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c981.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.821277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…2943backed No14c978.88$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes75c954.96$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+171.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x674b…f1afbacked Yes69c939.77$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No5c932.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12e…2408backed Yes70c851.52$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedfc…1df1backed No29c836.67$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes68c835.41$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.312142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No25c835.01$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed No31c801.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No12c766.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b79…fbdabacked Yes73c757$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No14c750$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No27c740.46$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No32c739.48$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No25c725.36$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x748d…042fbacked Yes70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No26c712.94$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.59650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No32c699.98$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5480…0330backed No3c689.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed Yes72c685$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.