China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa529f6172053308b6a658c516cd03ead5fb3a2e75769e20bc369fe2bfd750173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $567,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 608 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 16,020$12,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.19 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 13,855$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 13,472$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.31 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…6924backed No | 20c | 12,410$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 9,957$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 13c | 8,870$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 22c | 8,573$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 80c | 7,987$6,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 19c | 7,979$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 76c | 7,476$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…dbb1backed No | 30c | 6,232$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 7c | 6,000$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 5,765$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…0ba2backed Yes | 71c | 5,709$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…2727backed Yes | 73c | 5,570$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 79c | 5,505$4,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 26c | 5,078$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 0c | 4,990$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 36c | 4,582$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 19c | 4,441$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…781dbacked Yes | 75c | 4,352$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…1af9backed No | 27c | 4,031$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 16c | 3,992$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…8b3fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,971$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 65c | 3,952$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 31c | 3,527$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…ee7bbacked No | 23c | 3,436$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…c554backed Yes | 74c | 3,400$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed No | 7c | 3,323$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 14c | 3,232$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…9e08backed No | 30c | 3,218$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 17c | 2,900$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 77c | 2,826$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…ea95backed No | 6c | 2,735$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 80c | 2,451$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 17c | 2,376$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc695…6438backed No | 39c | 2,263$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…365abacked No | 26c | 2,176$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8d…b980backed No | 40c | 2,130$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,999$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,988$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes | 77c | 1,952$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 1,890$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 17c | 1,842$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 78c | 1,836$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab9…9741backed No | 34c | 1,762$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fe62backed No | 6c | 1,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 11c | 1,719$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…451bbacked No | 6c | 1,639$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,638$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 7c | 1,568$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 9c | 1,489$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 34c | 1,472$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4493…3ec1backed No | 36c | 1,434$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed No | 1c | 1,407$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed No | 26c | 1,400$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…43e3backed No | 14c | 1,385$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 17c | 1,370$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 1,334$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 20c | 1,322$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b14…b79fbacked No | 6c | 1,305$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 19c | 1,300$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 15c | 1,284$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,255$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 1,211$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…d97abacked No | 3c | 1,207$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,200$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 1,164$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,109$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 26c | 1,011$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 17c | 1,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…4ed7backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 34c | 999.94$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes | 69c | 998.02$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 981.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 14c | 978.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 75c | 954.96$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…f1afbacked Yes | 69c | 939.77$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 5c | 932.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…2408backed Yes | 70c | 851.52$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 29c | 836.67$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 68c | 835.41$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 25c | 835.01$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed No | 31c | 801.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 12c | 766.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…fbdabacked Yes | 73c | 757$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 14c | 750$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 27c | 740.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 32c | 739.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 25c | 725.36$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748d…042fbacked Yes | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 26c | 712.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 32c | 699.98$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5480…0330backed No | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…5579backed Yes | 72c | 685$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?this page
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?No won
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.