China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626d23dfc73f5e83707de16ebbbedb9c5de8998fabe26b15f724ea5e5d4b3dd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 6,304$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,446$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 3c | 2,058$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,893$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060b…7a7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,577$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,463$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes | 5c | 1,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e2c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,289$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…b664backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 847.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 753.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 690$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 620.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 619.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 554.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 540.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 539.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 510.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…68cfbacked Yes | 5c | 421$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…ac7abacked Yes | 5c | 404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 5c | 394.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 361.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…532fbacked Yes | 5c | 332.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed Yes | 5c | 329.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 9c | 319.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…f7eebacked Yes | 3c | 306.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…83f4backed Yes | 7c | 293.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 236.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 5c | 199.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…f37ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 6c | 181.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 58c | 47.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?this page
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?No won
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.