China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Amazon acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf0ad9c59a828228b41abe1c1194f80facb936b0bb70a5de6c7a742fcd3d278f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,716$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,795$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +176%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 1,736$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,342$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,215$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,189$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 19c | 1,163$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 13c | 1,133$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 2c | 1,062$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9da3backed Yes | 4c | 925$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…7849backed Yes | 4c | 896$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 847.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 813.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed Yes | 1c | 809.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…04bebacked Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 684.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 597.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 590.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 7c | 437.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…d100backed Yes | 11c | 435.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 429.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 3c | 425.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…f08ebacked Yes | 7c | 422.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…83aebacked Yes | 9c | 403.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…5db8backed Yes | 3c | 390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 372.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed82…0954backed Yes | 4c | 323.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…4468backed Yes | 4c | 302$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…83f4backed Yes | 18c | 301$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 198.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…3008backed Yes | 6c | 155.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…9479backed Yes | 14c | 143.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 88.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?this page
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.