China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc83876f4e36b4e41bc897c42c7b791d3baead9e41d6e916663cc801db33c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,116$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 13c | 6,294$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 2,831$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,445$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,349$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,119$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +176%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,840$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,483$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,404$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,283$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 907.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…7545backed Yes | 1c | 880.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 854.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 844.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…dc97backed No | 71c | 783.69$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 10c | 780.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 483.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 4c | 463.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…8fb2backed Yes | 3c | 434.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 413.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…f68bbacked Yes | 5c | 311.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…83f4backed Yes | 27c | 303.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…f37ebacked Yes | 27c | 290.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 10c | 126.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +546.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…fcaabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…9352backed Yes | 19c | 57.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…425bbacked No | 70c | 53.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…55c8backed Yes | 24c | 47.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 46.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 79c | 33.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 78c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…2ed8backed No | 78c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?this page
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?No won
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.