China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cd20a6f60ad515239800fd8e2bf2594e89454ee31c6b1a92e00c97321e82eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 17c | 9,544$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 3c | 5,913$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,585$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,974$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed No | 70c | 2,629$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,402$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…cf22backed Yes | 3c | 1,857$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…f4ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,184$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 958.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 6c | 816.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…dc97backed No | 75c | 765.61$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…cb4abacked Yes | 3c | 756$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 716.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 710.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…ceeabacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…64ddbacked Yes | 6c | 699.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 692.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…f10ebacked Yes | 7c | 689.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 516.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…eb1dbacked Yes | 3c | 460$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes | 13c | 441.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 7c | 420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…d12ebacked No | 76c | 386.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…b154backed Yes | 7c | 382.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…0cebbacked No | 76c | 380.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…026dbacked No | 76c | 379.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…03a8backed No | 76c | 370.67$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…c8d8backed No | 76c | 369.19$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…f349backed No | 76c | 367.47$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…1d65backed No | 77c | 365.66$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…2b64backed No | 76c | 359.71$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 8c | 356.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…78d2backed No | 76c | 352.35$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…1e50backed Yes | 6c | 339.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…68cfbacked Yes | 4c | 313.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 77c | 306.12$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…83f4backed Yes | 20c | 302.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 301.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…f1e9backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…812ebacked Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…f37ebacked Yes | 27c | 258.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 257.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…b8cebacked Yes | 6c | 249.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…8a90backed Yes | 7c | 238.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…e431backed Yes | 13c | 226.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…82e7backed Yes | 6c | 221.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…5f71backed Yes | 35c | 204.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 5c | 202.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…b7c4backed Yes | 35c | 201.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…c204backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07b…cdacbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…687abacked Yes | 35c | 199.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…a44abacked Yes | 35c | 199$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…00acbacked Yes | 35c | 197.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…2ff7backed Yes | 35c | 192.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…b786backed Yes | 35c | 189.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…1c9cbacked Yes | 35c | 187.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…b797backed No | 80c | 186.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 80c | 185.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…062abacked No | 80c | 184.53$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…3408backed No | 80c | 184.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…0b53backed No | 79c | 183.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…46fdbacked No | 80c | 183.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…4b7cbacked No | 80c | 181.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…16e5backed No | 79c | 180.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…42dcbacked Yes | 35c | 179.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…fee1backed No | 80c | 179.41$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a52…2f3fbacked Yes | 35c | 178.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…a2b7backed No | 80c | 178.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 65c | 178$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…2a56backed No | 79c | 176.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…8428backed No | 80c | 176.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…a6d4backed No | 80c | 176.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…2808backed No | 79c | 176.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…a20abacked No | 79c | 175.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c44…948dbacked No | 79c | 175.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…dbe2backed No | 80c | 174.95$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…4666backed No | 79c | 174.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…ef59backed No | 79c | 174.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…6c71backed No | 80c | 174.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 79c | 174.65$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 79c | 174.57$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…d2b3backed No | 79c | 174.57$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…96dabacked No | 79c | 174.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…1f5abacked No | 79c | 174.33$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…aff8backed No | 79c | 174.31$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…9c30backed No | 79c | 174.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…6c73backed No | 79c | 174.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…7ab7backed No | 80c | 172.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…7baabacked No | 79c | 171.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 8c | 171.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…5c50backed No | 79c | 170.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…7710backed No | 79c | 169.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…963dbacked No | 79c | 167.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…b45bbacked No | 80c | 167.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bf…7159backed No | 80c | 166.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?this page
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?No won
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.