TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a41…242abacked Yes17c9,544$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes3c5,913$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.87137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes6c4,585$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,974$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.951277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de7…a9c8backed No70c2,629$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+120.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes10c2,500$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c2,402$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96260%0 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…cf22backed Yes3c1,857$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a8…f4ebbacked Yes3c1,184$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes5c958.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.93100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes6c816.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.27580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+81.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4144…dc97backed No75c765.61$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…cb4abacked Yes3c756$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c716.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.043312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c710.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…ceeabacked Yes8c700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfde…64ddbacked Yes6c699.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes5c692.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…f10ebacked Yes7c689.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes6c516.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…eb1dbacked Yes3c460$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes13c441.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes7c420$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ae…d12ebacked No76c386.02$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…b154backed Yes7c382.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e7…0cebbacked No76c380.11$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…026dbacked No76c379.11$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8635…03a8backed No76c370.67$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a6…c8d8backed No76c369.19$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7677…f349backed No76c367.47$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50db…1d65backed No77c365.66$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8280…2b64backed No76c359.71$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa295…dda7backed Yes8c356.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x428e…78d2backed No76c352.35$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9b…1e50backed Yes6c339.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfade…68cfbacked Yes4c313.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No77c306.12$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71c…83f4backed Yes20c302.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c301.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.02310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edd…f1e9backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b4d…812ebacked Yes7c289.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes7c266.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e94…f37ebacked Yes27c258.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c257.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c18…b8cebacked Yes6c249.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92db…8a90backed Yes7c238.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f7…e431backed Yes13c226.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a8…82e7backed Yes6c221.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb34d…5f71backed Yes35c204.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes5c202.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…b7c4backed Yes35c201.53$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b9…c204backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07b…cdacbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d65…687abacked Yes35c199.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8649…a44abacked Yes35c199$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2c…00acbacked Yes35c197.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b62…2ff7backed Yes35c192.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3d…b786backed Yes35c189.59$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd2…1c9cbacked Yes35c187.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc1d…b797backed No80c186.18$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…57e2backed No80c185.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6b…062abacked No80c184.53$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x818a…3408backed No80c184.44$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…0b53backed No79c183.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9695…46fdbacked No80c183.4$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa210…4b7cbacked No80c181.16$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8461…16e5backed No79c180.42$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ef…42dcbacked Yes35c179.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab70…fee1backed No80c179.41$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a52…2f3fbacked Yes35c178.29$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2f…a2b7backed No80c178.22$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No65c178$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd196…2a56backed No79c176.6$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a54…8428backed No80c176.55$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf3…a6d4backed No80c176.48$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x573d…2808backed No79c176.42$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…a20abacked No79c175.38$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c44…948dbacked No79c175.07$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ae…dbe2backed No80c174.95$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c3…4666backed No79c174.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d3…ef59backed No79c174.8$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e9…6c71backed No80c174.68$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de0…bcb4backed No79c174.65$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe7…fc32backed No79c174.57$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0c…d2b3backed No79c174.57$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc8…96dabacked No79c174.4$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa26…1f5abacked No79c174.33$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…aff8backed No79c174.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781b…9c30backed No79c174.28$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d62…6c73backed No79c174.12$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad0…7ab7backed No80c172.88$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f5…7baabacked No79c171.68$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes8c171.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed0…5c50backed No79c170.24$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x129e…7710backed No79c169.25$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…963dbacked No79c167.81$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc71…b45bbacked No80c167.31$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bf…7159backed No80c166.39$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.