China Taiwan · resolved market
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1092e16a9e18ffeadedb8e4c1363d773a9c1b2dc89946155a1581a77cc44ca26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…aaf5backed Yes | 11c | 1,801$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…3a22backed Yes | 7c | 1,673$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,210$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 980.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 2c | 717.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 4c | 496.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 430.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…b370backed Yes | 15c | 349.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…6022backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 328.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 11c | 306.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…83f4backed Yes | 8c | 291.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 6c | 190.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 8c | 174.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a0…239fbacked Yes | 7c | 162.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 15c | 103.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 95.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 19c | 78.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed No | 79c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?this page
- Will Amazon acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes won
- Will Meta acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?No won
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.