World Politics · resolved market
North Korea missile test by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57099d5474e31e60aa138c30174a7dd51134fdade996fdbf2def11f5e194e846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 11,919$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 16c | 11,011$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.27 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 8,665$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.29 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked No | 76c | 3,563$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 5c | 2,804$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 10c | 2,572$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.02 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,535$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 1,420$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.7 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,266$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,186$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 966.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…d3fabacked Yes | 12c | 965.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 911.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 30c | 866.02$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 835.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 829.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.63 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…df59backed Yes | 20c | 823.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…2dcdbacked No | 76c | 803.84$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 4c | 792.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 15c | 709.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 708.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 707.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…1df8backed Yes | 8c | 654.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 619.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 70c | 569.23$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 5c | 540$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 74c | 479.5$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 12c | 479.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 70c | 472.96$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 468.94$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 16c | 459.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 75c | 435.16$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…d1dfbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 33c | 370$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…e1edbacked No | 79c | 357.04$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 344.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 305.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 67c | 299.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 64c | 270.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 266$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 255.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 20c | 254$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…c2ddbacked Yes | 16c | 230.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Yes | 30c | 226$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 221$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked No | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 75c | 213.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 200.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…af2abacked Yes | 25c | 199.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 196.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 6c | 185.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…807abacked No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…44a7backed Yes | 31c | 148.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 73c | 137.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…2965backed Yes | 30c | 117.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…9640backed No | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 69c | 105.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…7909backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0c…af7abacked No | 77c | 92.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 82.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…bb8abacked No | 79c | 77.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f48…a14cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…289ebacked Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83b…029ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…8d45backed No | 73c | 61.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 25c | 54.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…7500backed No | 75c | 54.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…ab01backed No | 77c | 46.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…a516backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed No | 75c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…0e94backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…5b48backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…7553backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…779bbacked No | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.