TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

North Korea missile test by June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c11,919$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.213511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes16c11,011$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.275740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes4c8,665$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.295414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked No76c3,563$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes5c2,804$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes10c2,572$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.02519.8%5 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+93.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes12c1,535$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No74c1,420$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.79750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c1,367$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.616883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c1,266$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34320.9%9 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes16c1,186$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.471833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes18c1,004$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-67.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c966.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.62939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…d3fabacked Yes12c965.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c911.09$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.227123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes30c866.02$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+143.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes5c835.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.986114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c829.38$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d17…df59backed Yes20c823.59$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.86425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6d…2dcdbacked No76c803.84$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes4c792.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.516331.7%20 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes15c709.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.718330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes2c708.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.638023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c707.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.554766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4659…1df8backed Yes8c654.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c619.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No70c569.23$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.216038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes5c540$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.884526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No74c479.5$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes12c479.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.482240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No70c472.96$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.72653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c468.94$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.441,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes16c459.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.292425%6 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+140.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No75c435.16$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4424736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe58…ee71backed Yes33c370$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…e1edbacked No79c357.04$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.35366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes5c344.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.468838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c305.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No67c299.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.511050%5 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+129.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No64c270.67$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No69c266$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.86950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c255.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.221256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Yes20c254$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.378341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c58…c2ddbacked Yes16c230.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.272846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f4…3d96backed Yes30c226$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.864334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c221$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2856314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab8c…bfefbacked No68c220$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No75c213.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.54332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c200.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.320328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked Yes25c199.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c196.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2417227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes6c185.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8211435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504540%18 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…807abacked No72c149.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…44a7backed Yes31c148.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed No73c137.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.462240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+69.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eeb…2965backed Yes30c117.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…9640backed No76c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No69c105.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.84728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72c7…7909backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315933.9%20 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0c…af7abacked No77c92.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…a149backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No69c82.52$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.587944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…bb8abacked No79c77.52$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f48…a14cbacked Yes30c73.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1506…289ebacked Yes26c71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.461118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc83b…029ebacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e56…8d45backed No73c61.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No80c59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.854250%21 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e02…5553backed Yes25c54.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.673447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…7500backed No75c54.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6267…ab01backed No77c46.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5255…a516backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No75c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.051050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d69…d6f1backed No75c33.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8498…0e94backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91450%7 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+304.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4283…169ebacked No69c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd628…a698backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d89…5b48backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20f7…635ebacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62425%6 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…7553backed No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe768…779bbacked No78c14.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.