AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7b4b14b0fcf33fa84d562370d0259435319f3c25f54d8e87c1b2841fcf1d4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 44c | 4,466$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.28 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 1,013$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 10c | 833$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 12c | 829.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 40c | 766.64$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.3 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed No | 65c | 710.33$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 50c | 659.8$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.29 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2ab4backed Yes | 14c | 630.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1124…6cc6backed No | 46c | 614.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 42c | 494.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.53 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 474.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f1…474cbacked Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 51c | 276.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 53c | 271.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 66c | 235.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8413backed No | 66c | 228.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 76c | 215$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 26c | 163.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 48c | 156.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 8c | 142.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…dd77backed No | 69c | 142.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…8448backed Yes | 41c | 114.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…a3b9backed Yes | 48c | 103.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked Yes | 47c | 102.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…9640backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 78c | 97.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…6252backed Yes | 18c | 89.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…47ccbacked Yes | 56c | 89.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 59c | 85.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 71c | 85.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 37c | 63.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 52c | 57.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 49c | 57.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ba…0444backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…431ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…6294backed Yes | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…41febacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 68c | 44.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…db49backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…fefabacked Yes | 62c | 33.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 48c | 32.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…0f44backed Yes | 35c | 31.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…9cc1backed Yes | 53c | 28.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…bc06backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 55c | 19.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.