AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9599e4872a55e7c923e4bb5daa590df974d77ae9ffdb52ed2b320ffb6e35314a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 668.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 18c | 590$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 6c | 540.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 70c | 383.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…2d3bbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 23c | 175.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 7c | 163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 70c | 58.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…220cbacked Yes | 29c | 47.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…9ff4backed Yes | 34c | 44.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.