Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ce5723aebb54a9fba1e6cc69ab2f2e482db356812e6f44b9a4efd8ec973c86

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lowerof Raise, Lower
Resolved: Apr 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x477a…2d8ebacked Raise	4c	40,817$1,669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,669.45	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed Lower	31c	3,000$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,070	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Lower	39c	1,839$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120.83	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Lower	78c	1,729$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.07	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Raise	69c	1,331$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.49	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+22.8wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+56%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Lower	34c	1,185$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.3	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Raise	69c	1,138$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.48	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-29%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Raise	70c	1,090$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.47	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Raise	75c	1,059$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.93	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+118%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Raise	39c	907.3$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.35	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked Lower	51c	859.21$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.79	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	36cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Raise	41c	747$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.42	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Lower	76c	740.15$562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.62	204	46.6%95 W · 109 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Lower	27c	615.02$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.24	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	-7.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Raise	78c	580$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.33	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Lower	31c	488.1$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.5	95	57.9%55 W · 40 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Lower	54c	425$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.18	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Lower	69c	364$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.98	151	55%83 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Raise	45c	352.25$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.41	141	25.5%36 W · 105 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a83…b4dcbacked Raise	47c	318.15$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0881…b590backed Raise	4c	314.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Lower	48c	292.62$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.81	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Raise	69c	289.86$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	194	35.1%68 W · 126 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Lower	21c	250$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.5	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Lower	27c	250$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.5	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fa…949ebacked Raise	9c	240$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed Lower	44c	227.26$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.26	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Lower	29c	210$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.1	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb163…3aefbacked Lower	61c	200$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51c…5d60backed Lower	61c	200$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Raise	79c	200$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-25%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee4…4ccabacked Lower	50c	199.88$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.88	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Lower	42c	160.76$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.53	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Raise	47c	158.92$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.46	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Raise	66c	150.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Raise	73c	150$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.5	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed Lower	32c	150$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+3.1wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Lower	36c	147$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.48	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Raise	53c	135.2$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.86	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Lower	54c	132$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.94	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…caeebacked Raise	61c	125.15$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.06	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a97…0fc7backed Raise	41c	122.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.03	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Lower	11c	122.12$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.01	131	38.9%51 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Raise	67c	121.34$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.43	144	60.4%87 W · 57 L	+16.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+24%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Lower	76c	120.99$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Raise	75c	118$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.5	84	50%42 W · 42 L	-9.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Lower	15c	116.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.52	378	44.4%168 W · 210 L	+33.3wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed Lower	34c	111$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Lower	26c	101$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.87	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Raise	67c	100$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Lower	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+6.9wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8136…0bdfbacked Lower	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	69cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Raise	42c	87.2$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Lower	32c	80$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.8	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Lower	51c	80$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Lower	66c	75.58$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.58	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Raise	60c	75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	134	55.2%74 W · 60 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Lower	32c	65.58$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.39	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Lower	32c	60$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Raise	28c	60$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea50…0a97backed Raise	58c	59.55$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	72cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6943…7462backed Raise	22c	58.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Lower	41c	58$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.22	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Lower	44c	56.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.82	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Lower	53c	46.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.08	165	44.8%74 W · 91 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Raise	76c	46.35$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed Raise	56c	44.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	30	73.3%22 W · 8 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Lower	39c	41.38$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.31	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Raise	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	140	48.6%68 W · 72 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Lower	39c	40$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Raise	72c	39.15$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfde7…ec9bbacked Raise	75c	37.19$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.83	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	71cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfa…ce5dbacked Raise	41c	36.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Lower	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0b…2c72backed Raise	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked Lower	61c	29.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Raise	45c	28.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5275…7ddabacked Lower	68c	27.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.84	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4006…afd0backed Raise	78c	25.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Raise	60c	23.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…eb2abacked Lower	64c	21.58$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed Raise	68c	21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de3…c5e4backed Raise	76c	21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf65…45d7backed Lower	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…39b1backed Lower	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc77…a5b9backed Raise	63c	19.37$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market