TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$444,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$414,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2efd…be4cbacked No63c63,597$40,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,530.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d56…f78ebacked Yes37c63,597$23,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,530.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2400…e647backed No63c32,108$20,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,879.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe839…5487backed Yes37c32,108$11,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,879.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f2…d0a5backed No56c28,077$15,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,353.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f63…1c91backed Yes44c28,077$12,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,353.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…fe8cbacked Yes19c22,700$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes12c17,786$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.934047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5427…bb86backed Yes0c14,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+66%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes19c3,685$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9a…f836backed Yes20c2,494$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c2,479$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.323766.9%26 W · 350 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Yes45c2,232$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c2,119$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes41c2,081$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.141729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes39c1,802$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes11c1,786$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.961546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.30per pick17cpaid+109.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes40c1,784$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.225137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes18c1,690$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.681040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes9c1,516$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.252445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes18c1,508$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9b…6e75backed Yes16c1,363$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.631346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430c…17f4backed Yes20c1,238$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes13c1,191$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…7a88backed Yes13c1,145$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4529…7fc9backed Yes26c1,125$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59e…f694backed Yes19c1,120$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…d410backed Yes18c1,093$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes59c1,049$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.22536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes19c1,041$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.453828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bcc…1ab0backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes27c966.06$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.841618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes45c946.94$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.5512353.7%66 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes55c924.11$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.343537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdde…527abacked Yes18c880.61$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa43…cbdfbacked Yes56c872.12$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes9c708.4$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.34933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec4…d553backed Yes38c700$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c659.29$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.737950.6%40 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed No78c643.61$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d70…c9a0backed Yes18c641.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6648backed No56c599.27$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ec…25edbacked Yes12c565.02$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3224…4ac3backed Yes18c554.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…010bbacked Yes56c533.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…9f2fbacked No49c526.33$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes19c520.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa9…d8adbacked Yes11c516.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7a…d80abacked Yes20c505.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf812…494bbacked No50c502.51$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a2…ea25backed Yes79c490.35$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Yes8c489.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes8c450.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes12c449$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1912646.8%59 W · 67 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes14c421.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca9…6ec9backed Yes6c421.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aac…c78fbacked Yes17c410.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4191…569fbacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24a…10acbacked Yes19c399.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes41c389.52$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.73423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes22c378.47$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.097233.3%24 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x796a…7202backed Yes18c373.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes36c364.03$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.711216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes38c363.16$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13812523.2%29 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c90…aa32backed Yes27c361.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531c…06e6backed Yes79c355.95$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd137…3dacbacked Yes19c353.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8338…8be1backed Yes45c351.74$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.72450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec01…6592backed Yes47c350.45$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.712646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edf…480ebacked Yes9c335.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes39c331.63$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb984…ecb9backed Yes29c326.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf203…2cb2backed Yes34c320$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x439c…b82cbacked Yes17c311.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes16c306.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No58c303.74$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.072445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x784a…7ac9backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes34c292.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes44c290.22$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid0%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes8c290$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes8c278$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4600…78aabacked Yes18c274.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes17c273.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes14c268$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No44c261.85$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.663444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bef…1ecabacked Yes19c260.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed No16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+130.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2374…f6c4backed Yes49c247.18$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes9c237.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1993…df7fbacked Yes49c230.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885c…1f34backed Yes19c227.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes5c226$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79e6…8336backed Yes59c222.54$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbbe…e4c1backed Yes19c220.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes13c215.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No75c214.21$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.495442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…459ebacked Yes17c211.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes18c209.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…0b0cbacked Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes79c205.33$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.