Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0376d7567e477376b557c4cf94a165c5bb6fb41439bac94d26339979e8f00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 16c | 24,794$3,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,863.43 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 6,975$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.83 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,261$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…dd25backed Yes | 24c | 4,243$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 20c | 3,950$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.5 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 37c | 3,038$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.44 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,785$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 64c | 2,614$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.47 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 76c | 2,499$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.45 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 2,402$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 63c | 2,207$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 2,033$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 16c | 1,805$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,682$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 8c | 1,627$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 35c | 1,618$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.24 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…7adbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,533$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 41c | 1,506$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.49 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 60c | 1,499$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.61 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 45c | 1,485$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 14c | 1,436$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 13c | 1,416$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 18c | 950$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 66c | 726.57$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.38 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…9187backed Yes | 13c | 725.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 721.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 34c | 707.82$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.7 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 672.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 669.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 35c | 635$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Yes | 22c | 596.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 79c | 502.88$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 19c | 496.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed Yes | 16c | 434.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 12c | 428.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 380$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 292$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 7c | 272.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 65c | 245$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf701…5d7abacked Yes | 26c | 241.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 22c | 232.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 68c | 222$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 65c | 216.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 209$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a2a8backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…36f3backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed Yes | 9c | 137.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 75c | 133.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…8589backed No | 77c | 129$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed No | 78c | 127.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…bfbcbacked Yes | 17c | 115.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 70c | 107$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…1cffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 24c | 82.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 62c | 82.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…2503backed No | 74c | 81.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked No | 63c | 74.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…fcb0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…8072backed No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…09a6backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…f5c8backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 56c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 33.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…ee86backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.