China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62777fa95acbc41a7c66df01f5db2e01d51f82b6916ec4257bd63b14e1690bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 5,519$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…b4dcbacked Yes | 30c | 4,619$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 5c | 4,432$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 4,042$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 17c | 4,020$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 3,281$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 78c | 2,722$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 17c | 1,735$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 29c | 1,629$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 16c | 1,410$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 80c | 1,080$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,067$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,053$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 22c | 933.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 886.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 75c | 734.96$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 3c | 669.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 30c | 655.72$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 68c | 651.99$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 28c | 600$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed Yes | 49c | 598.12$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 55c | 594.98$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 55c | 583.22$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…976cbacked Yes | 9c | 527.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 489.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 21c | 484.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 17c | 457.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 17c | 427.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…c62dbacked Yes | 61c | 403.35$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed Yes | 7c | 369.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 362.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 345.28$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 25c | 305.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 15c | 284.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 280$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 77c | 279$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 278$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 12c | 271.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 67c | 271.95$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 258.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 12c | 247.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 179.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 179$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed No | 73c | 155$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…8408backed Yes | 13c | 150.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…9346backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 18c | 126.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed Yes | 11c | 114.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 22c | 105.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed Yes | 31c | 104.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 40c | 104.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…04adbacked Yes | 21c | 96.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 75.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3600backed Yes | 20c | 73.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…879ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 16c | 67.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 15c | 65.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…468ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422b…774bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…ddb9backed Yes | 28c | 42.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.