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NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$460,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 697 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3078…3e11backed Heat57c29,890$17,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,713.822049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors35c27,316$9,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,522.173,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Raptors35c18,446$6,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,520.3133931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Raptors37c18,167$6,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,805.5834532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors34c16,480$5,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,608.861,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Heat59c8,334$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.4912663.5%80 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b1…6f55backed Heat60c6,615$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.8920238.6%78 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heat60c6,467$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.870147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Raptors43c4,609$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.4411656.9%66 W · 50 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Raptors42c3,900$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.9346131%143 W · 318 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6b…20bebacked Heat59c3,402$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.38343.4%36 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Raptors43c3,219$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010541%43 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Raptors32c3,038$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.25,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Raptors43c3,023$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3009437.2%35 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e0…0578backed Heat58c2,803$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.220553.7%110 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2440…bf2ebacked Raptors36c2,656$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-56.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Heat58c2,631$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.4519149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa8…59ebbacked Heat50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Heat75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62516563.6%105 W · 60 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6593…d4a3backed Raptors50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors5c2,469$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.451,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Heat74c2,423$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.7229652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Heat57c2,396$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.258521.2%18 W · 67 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid+33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Raptors79c2,229$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.0714057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x484c…94d9backed Raptors1c2,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Heat69c2,146$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.7128347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cc…de2dbacked Raptors43c2,144$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.041030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3603…ac36backed Heat58c2,058$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.5611355.8%63 W · 50 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Heat69c2,048$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.4420447.1%96 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Heat57c2,025$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.7373051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Heat54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.343652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors43c1,996$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.4180146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Raptors25c1,935$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.221,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Raptors20c1,900$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38031125.1%78 W · 233 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat58c1,826$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.771,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a27…b9ddbacked Heat58c1,803$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.261172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc1…4534backed Raptors42c1,800$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d34…b76fbacked Heat56c1,581$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.527860.3%47 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Heat62c1,467$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.0214563.4%92 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1872…ae0fbacked Raptors73c1,407$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.686758.2%39 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6c…d4dabacked Heat57c1,366$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.643145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd835…0d2dbacked Heat23c1,309$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.161656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+35.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Heat50c1,296$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6acd…d838backed Heat57c1,290$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Heat58c1,276$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.8817943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb43c…d43bbacked Heat65c1,176$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.7613043.1%56 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d88…1870backed Heat54c1,100$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Raptors42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42032130.2%97 W · 224 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Raptors43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Heat60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40019448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Raptors41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc693…c4e0backed Heat57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Raptors29c959.63$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28045135%158 W · 293 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Raptors25c932.43$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2819231.3%60 W · 132 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Heat52c920.52$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.8553134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Raptors6c900$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5422137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dc…099fbacked Heat66c892$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…e019backed Raptors12c835.84$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2230061.7%185 W · 115 L+23.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Heat72c829.14$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.121,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Raptors36c794.63$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3988053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc6c…81c8backed Raptors31c786.42$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Heat58c786.18$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.27354.8%40 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c3…daecbacked Heat58c744.47$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7704…d9ddbacked Raptors13c725.67$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc913…e51cbacked Raptors42c725$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbe…bc55backed Heat62c700.37$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7850453.8%271 W · 233 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…63febacked Heat58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce29…9147backed Raptors43c694.93$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc486…ab6fbacked Heat58c694.83$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.831040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Raptors43c690.7$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48bf…e441backed Heat58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.661145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Heat57c650.63$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2670640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Raptors31c630$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19513920.1%28 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat59c613.77$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Heat70c604.37$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5347656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…8d05backed Heat58c603.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4514051.4%72 W · 68 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Raptors41c600.01$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4785542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Raptors17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0328…28fabacked Heat62c554.29$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6322430.8%69 W · 155 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Raptors17c550.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.561,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Heat57c527.96$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.021,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Heat58c517.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1726659%157 W · 109 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf53a…40d4backed Heat77c516.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.346100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Heat58c515.53$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.379744.3%43 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb05…377abacked Heat58c500.03$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d6…9487backed Raptors32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d6…6de3backed Raptors40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1029…56c1backed Raptors45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3ee…c58fbacked Heat57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2152352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5810…fa44backed Raptors40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002532%8 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde8c…af97backed Raptors35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752528%7 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf42f…420fbacked Heat65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1752437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf08a…29e0backed Heat56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2202454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf44c…57dfbacked Heat56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2202441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f9…d9d9backed Heat60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc455…d59cbacked Heat65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1752544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6b…1318backed Raptors40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4e…09b7backed Heat56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2202466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8824…7fa6backed Raptors44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bd…5765backed Heat60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.