Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2644f05ebe450b8742094a85903ac9c3f402e6ba00c788a8f52c922281b50460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,360,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,098,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,360,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 1c | 193,601$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 0c | 108,662$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…a6a2backed Yes | 1c | 83,916$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked Yes | 2c | 58,587$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…62febacked Yes | 2c | 53,723$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…8042backed Yes | 1c | 38,650$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 34,077$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.53 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…c2febacked Yes | 1c | 29,800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 0c | 26,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…55bebacked Yes | 3c | 21,692$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 3c | 19,027$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…0848backed Yes | 0c | 17,200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…a35bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed Yes | 2c | 14,352$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…69dcbacked Yes | 1c | 14,293$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,442$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…84d8backed Yes | 3c | 12,431$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…db03backed Yes | 1c | 12,229$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…1493backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…4d54backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…72d5backed Yes | 2c | 7,998$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…454abacked Yes | 3c | 7,689$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe3…359abacked Yes | 3c | 7,606$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 7,509$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 2c | 6,360$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06b4…33edbacked Yes | 0c | 6,152$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,448$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…44c6backed Yes | 1c | 5,291$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 3c | 4,671$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…0df5backed Yes | 3c | 3,760$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…bd75backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,457$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 3c | 3,211$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,135$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…ab9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,960$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b806backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…389ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,603$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 3c | 2,332$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc74…118ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,139$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…db29backed Yes | 1c | 2,109$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…faf3backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 1c | 1,586$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,568$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 3c | 1,519$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,387$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6a42backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc134…a150backed Yes | 1c | 1,164$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…c1eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,158$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…fb1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…91c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,015$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…cdd9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3f…a7eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3755…2316backed Yes | 2c | 948.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 3c | 938.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…856dbacked Yes | 2c | 851.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 3c | 753.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…abc4backed Yes | 3c | 654.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…cebcbacked Yes | 4c | 653.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…17cbbacked Yes | 4c | 608.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 4c | 541.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Yes | 4c | 500.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…010abacked Yes | 4c | 472.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 5c | 470.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes | 3c | 468.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 2c | 458.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…2cecbacked Yes | 3c | 420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…6e66backed Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 3c | 395.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…0cdbbacked Yes | 4c | 387.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed Yes | 3c | 385.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59d…d1fdbacked Yes | 3c | 382.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2483…a40fbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed Yes | 4c | 352.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes | 5c | 336.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…334abacked Yes | 5c | 307$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…81babacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…53fabacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…1346backed Yes | 4c | 298.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 4c | 251.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…794abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…2abdbacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.