TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$865,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$821,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $865,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes50c180,103$89,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,500.982711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes38c41,084$15,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,783.23976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No48c31,536$15,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,398.827041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes46c19,281$8,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,913.741014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Yes52c19,233$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed No51c17,227$8,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,418.082250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No55c15,182$8,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,876.3822434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes37c10,275$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.6641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes49c10,134$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c5d…d382backed Yes50c10,027$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7001625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes49c9,945$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,873.161618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-72.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes33c9,915$3,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,241.631809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes38c9,137$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.339045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No55c8,945$4,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,043.453745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes45c8,792$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.581936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No53c8,578$4,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,009.6713450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…1da6backed Yes48c7,708$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed No58c7,308$4,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,042.662416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes31c6,387$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.947857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No58c6,311$3,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.472520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…d105backed Yes14c5,680$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.572825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed No51c5,627$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.91838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed No55c5,374$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.699259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes47c4,844$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes41c4,837$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.38818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes50c4,554$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.91947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Yes47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.993941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes47c3,886$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.183148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Yes39c3,857$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5031735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c3,654$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.6426830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes40c3,640$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.836832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed No62c3,557$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.243522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c3,309$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.7852828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdee…d1fcbacked Yes40c3,025$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61b…f73ebacked No54c3,000$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.981625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes16c2,253$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0125643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2dd…e1b2backed Yes30c2,172$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…dfc0backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes14c1,871$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.971508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No56c1,839$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.6216226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes42c1,758$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.377123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes26c1,694$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.0813255.3%73 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7616…cdfcbacked Yes21c1,680$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…9475backed Yes44c1,654$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005034%17 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ea…7b9bbacked Yes33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes48c1,332$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.643818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked No53c1,300$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.9928433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes31c1,200$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36812240.2%49 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e5ccbacked Yes16c1,168$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.291711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-76.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed No52c1,146$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf60…a22abacked Yes50c1,066$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.16728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45019638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes29c999.9$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.971250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes39c949.68$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37310125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac29…fa88backed Yes33c906.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028659.4%170 W · 116 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e89…247cbacked Yes65c896.2$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes38c888.3$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.663145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd09c…670abacked Yes44c837.27$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed No54c808$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6811738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0274…307bbacked Yes33c804$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.342714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b01…5344backed Yes35c777.81$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…aee3backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No68c749.98$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4914837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…efaebacked Yes41c740.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes15c726.66$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1315722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdd…ddfebacked Yes38c662$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8c…d7c6backed Yes21c648.1$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce10…902bbacked Yes40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No57c620.25$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.8315332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No35c611.13$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.014551.1%23 W · 22 L+9.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+235.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No57c602.68$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.764339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes42c595.08$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes14c580.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.81464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No54c564.62$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.7277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes40c562.62$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0514248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…21d8backed Yes38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…caeebacked No60c510.72$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ec…6b20backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009664.6%62 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x346e…be97backed Yes38c484.97$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbae…9395backed Yes42c475.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes41c457.52$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.812744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e4…3076backed Yes44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+100.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6938…e766backed Yes40c452.78$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2686…7a67backed Yes33c452.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019564.6%126 W · 69 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed No69c450.39$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.476233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes45c435.56$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4387…c3d1backed Yes35c424.24$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f8…a741backed Yes47c417.9$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1971540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f8…38c6backed No64c410.75$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes26c402.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.64131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ca…9069backed Yes25c400.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No66c362.21$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.941741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…2a31backed Yes32c360.69$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.56662.1%41 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c0…c88cbacked Yes33c360.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1707…682ebacked Yes51c359.53$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb33c…7f1ebacked Yes48c356.46$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.