NFL · resolved market
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7904e3d8b0f47371fb5826fd7349f85a9a0cff8de5486998d42482112339de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,261,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,064,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,261,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9a9…298fbacked Yes | 0c | 551,418$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…5cbebacked Yes | 0c | 550,886$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34c…162dbacked Yes | 0c | 536,907$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…b0e7backed Yes | 0c | 536,389$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…d4f8backed Yes | 0c | 522,396$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…ba62backed Yes | 0c | 522,396$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…a14bbacked Yes | 0c | 522,346$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…92c5backed Yes | 0c | 507,845$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 0c | 99,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 72,100$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 0c | 45,419$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,966$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…e921backed Yes | 0c | 26,379$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a1…7ca0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Yes | 0c | 10,813$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9e…fff1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…aad5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 5,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…46afbacked Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 10c | 2,400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 7c | 1,764$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 1,653$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,434$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 10c | 810$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 9c | 666.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 399.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?this page
- Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.