NFL · resolved market
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64754cd9d9774ab3c4ff37d17f17d36871ab7b3a5281a5068b2d4f2667491a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 10c | 11,365$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 11c | 8,000$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 9c | 7,548$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.24 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 7c | 5,257$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…2a16backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…7c51backed No | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,785$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.41 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…6b9ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,437$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 2,368$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.91 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,103$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,100$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Yes | 10c | 1,288$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f823backed Yes | 11c | 943.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes | 12c | 900$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…4725backed Yes | 7c | 842.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 8c | 728.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 5c | 637.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 7c | 610.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…37f2backed Yes | 8c | 601.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 8c | 503.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…3ecdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 11c | 469.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…faebbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 8c | 330$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…757abacked Yes | 8c | 299.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 11c | 275.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…c458backed Yes | 7c | 262.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0e…91c6backed Yes | 8c | 246.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…c6d5backed Yes | 10c | 245.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 10c | 238.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 209.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc0…2b1cbacked Yes | 14c | 178.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 8c | 173.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…0dfbbacked Yes | 14c | 169.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 163.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 136.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…185abacked Yes | 11c | 117.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?this page
- Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.