NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f57f5c38e16cf4a65d15a7d19df897d535782e51a40056abda9f68b06690f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,176,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $717,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,176,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c9…efecbacked Yes | 0c | 623,973$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…4c4fbacked Yes | 0c | 609,462$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…2b37backed Yes | 0c | 609,462$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…41d0backed Yes | 0c | 609,462$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…7f30backed Yes | 0c | 565,929$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…67febacked Yes | 0c | 565,929$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…ef6bbacked Yes | 0c | 565,929$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…782abacked Yes | 0c | 551,418$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…8a1ebacked Yes | 0c | 551,418$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…7e7fbacked Yes | 0c | 536,907$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d4…0fa0backed Yes | 0c | 536,389$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…7e8abacked Yes | 0c | 522,396$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…85b2backed Yes | 0c | 522,396$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6042…c3e6backed Yes | 0c | 521,892$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e21…a95cbacked Yes | 0c | 521,892$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…a9b1backed Yes | 0c | 507,395$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…f166backed Yes | 0c | 377,286$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…a0a4backed Yes | 0c | 377,286$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 31,760$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 7,155$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…399bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,402$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.25 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 1c | 5,116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 21c | 3,801$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.13 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 3c | 2,920$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,804$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 21c | 2,802$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.12 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 17c | 2,676$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.09 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 25c | 2,551$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.92 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 20c | 2,395$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.18 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 23c | 2,258$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.37 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 11c | 2,104$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 77c | 1,950$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes | 16c | 1,736$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,203$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…a035backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed Yes | 21c | 988$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ca…9069backed Yes | 17c | 441.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 17c | 389.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 385.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 14c | 325$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…757abacked Yes | 5c | 262.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 24c | 166.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…b01bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…c53fbacked Yes | 9c | 129.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…d73ebacked Yes | 17c | 120.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2b67backed Yes | 19c | 116.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 10c | 111.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 207 | 33.8%70 W · 137 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 96.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…7867backed Yes | 23c | 86.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…25d2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb1…0b52backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…7c06backed Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…860bbacked Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…2ebfbacked No | 78c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…fe37backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.