TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,851,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,654,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,851,091 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfadf…5466backed Yes0c594,951$1,190 inLost-$1,189.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…6bd8backed Yes0c580,440$1,161 inLost-$1,160.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f4…0b32backed Yes0c551,418$1,103 inLost-$1,102.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3514…48e1backed Yes0c536,907$1,074 inLost-$1,073.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…f166backed Yes0c159,621$479 inLost-$478.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea03…a0a4backed Yes0c159,621$479 inLost-$478.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c43,183$105 inLost-$104.651769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost-$301061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c27,849$71 inLost-$71.472430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c18,934$38 inLost-$37.87342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…01d1backed Yes0c14,511$44 inLost-$43.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f2…9b2bbacked Yes0c14,511$44 inLost-$43.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes2c13,000$301 inLost-$300.92147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$161014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c48…61f2backed Yes0c6,386$19 inLost-$19.1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes2c6,182$130 inLost-$1308729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f9…de78backed Yes0c4,243$17 inLost-$16.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes1c3,959$36 inLost-$35.63333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0290…ab07backed Yes0c3,667$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c1,103$58 inLost-$57.981809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d10…5b22backed Yes8c888.68$69 inLost-$69.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Yes5c349.01$16 inLost-$16.416139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc0…cf33backed Yes12c208.33$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.