TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$572,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$799,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $572,226 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes1c23,336$303 inLost-$303.37333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes4c17,696$621 inLost-$621.3215722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes2c15,000$363 inLost-$362.97238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,196$33 inLost-$332430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes2c13,271$263 inLost-$262.972313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes3c10,000$345 inLost-$345220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1564…8668backed Yes3c5,715$200 inLost-$199.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c5,551$18 inLost-$18.311014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes3c4,806$158 inLost-$158.18729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8507…8a79backed Yes3c3,947$114 inLost-$1144734%16 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c2,990$30 inLost-$29.9254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,151$31 inLost-$31.452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c2,035$63 inLost-$63.4112022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c1,711$12 inLost-$12.3116226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes2c1,405$32 inLost-$32.33749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c996.36$31 inLost-$30.71809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes2c700$11 inLost-$11.2464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes4c600$24 inLost-$24442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdeb…a035backed Yes3c503.86$17 inLost-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes4c500$21 inLost-$2122434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes4c500$18 inLost-$17.56142.6%26 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2331…ca3dbacked Yes3c385.06$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe590…fc44backed Yes4c265.45$12 inLost-$11.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1834…803fbacked Yes4c258.97$10 inLost-$10.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.