TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$572,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$933,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $572,227 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes2c17,500$315 inLost-$315922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c5,179$60 inLost-$60.1464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes2c4,890$78 inLost-$78.24220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c4,080$198 inLost-$197.7112022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c4,000$14 inLost-$142711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,205$17 inLost-$17.172430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes6c1,800$99 inLost-$99333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,629$26 inLost-$25.9852828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes3c1,363$42 inLost-$42.0824738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c1,297$45 inLost-$44.661809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes3c1,000$26 inLost-$26442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c883.72$11 inLost-$10.7316226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c664$12 inLost-$11.96508%4 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8083…12adbacked Yes2c617.39$12 inLost-$11.7370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06b…cc89backed Yes3c428.96$12 inLost-$11.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad21…cefcbacked Yes9c332.99$30 inLost-$306647%31 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ca…d412backed Yes3c308.25$10 inLost-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes5c296.36$15 inLost-$14.82749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes3c289.21$10 inLost-$102737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes6c278.49$17 inLost-$17.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0212…5e5bbacked Yes9c226.01$20 inLost-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes5c217$11 inLost-$10.8511839%46 W · 72 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598f…bf2dbacked Yes7c157.14$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.