NFL · resolved market
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b35c9c70d199a85f23be172696b57a32d95edf3b90aa2f124a4043e2f165f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,312,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 1c | 18,815$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes | 4c | 16,178$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.12 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 3c | 13,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…4a26backed Yes | 2c | 9,820$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,500$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…d96bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,850$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 3,775$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 3c | 3,290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 2c | 3,190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,915$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 7c | 1,750$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,724$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Yes | 6c | 1,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,262$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Yes | 6c | 1,092$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 6c | 1,047$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…faebbacked Yes | 3c | 824.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…4725backed Yes | 5c | 677.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes | 3c | 651.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…2992backed Yes | 2c | 635$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 5c | 616.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…5e3dbacked Yes | 2c | 586.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 560.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 5c | 538.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…a035backed Yes | 2c | 528.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 2c | 509.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 207 | 33.8%70 W · 137 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed Yes | 6c | 348.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…f9ecbacked Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…5c0cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?this page
- Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Giants win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Saints win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship?No won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.