Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0964df369a1eb5b80231b4e4e9f9bc33b61576ec5f8b76238007a2c8e6db2907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 71c | 3,984$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.28 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 25c | 3,760$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.41 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed No | 76c | 3,651$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.36 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…db6abacked Yes | 31c | 3,410$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 30c | 3,324$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,754$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 2c | 2,660$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 66c | 2,196$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.14 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,043$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…f927backed Yes | 25c | 860.37$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…ea20backed No | 75c | 860.37$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 12c | 797.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 24c | 702.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 5c | 630$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -15.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 25c | 328.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…0121backed No | 75c | 327.84$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…5c40backed Yes | 25c | 327.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…9f3bbacked Yes | 29c | 310.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 74c | 203.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…27f4backed Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 76c | 99.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 26c | 97.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…5c64backed No | 76c | 49.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996f…3748backed Yes | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…f9c5backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.