Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc110a4a84e25564634fcaf9135ebc24ac32b9cce2e2e9451ce1dc8a71a4ac4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 74c | 11,301$8,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…fb60backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…227fbacked Yes | 21c | 4,692$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 26c | 3,916$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 80c | 3,700$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,179$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 74c | 2,120$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.32 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 8c | 2,083$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 1,971$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 26c | 1,864$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 12c | 1,191$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 26c | 1,174$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 74c | 1,025$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.54 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 12c | 812.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 807.99$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 15c | 807.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 78c | 723.07$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 676$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 24c | 572.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 233 | 50.2%117 W · 116 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 77c | 550.88$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd87…f55ebacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 19c | 424.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 73c | 407$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 25c | 404.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ba…6a77backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 360$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 26c | 335.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 302$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…1b90backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…f60abacked Yes | 26c | 253.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f97…a8f5backed Yes | 26c | 241.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…44bdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…d77dbacked Yes | 24c | 155.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…177bbacked No | 76c | 114.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…a64bbacked Yes | 25c | 113.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…f792backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…38c0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 75c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 26c | 82.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…7eaabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…e44fbacked No | 74c | 74.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…dff8backed No | 76c | 69.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ef…9ea8backed No | 76c | 68.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…4e58backed No | 75c | 50.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Yes | 25c | 50.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 24c | 50.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…7bd1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…bf4dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…c35bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…1c75backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…71b3backed No | 75c | 37.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw?this page
- Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?Yes won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.