TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Commanders, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,503,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,281,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,503,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 524 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6a2…6af8backed Lions76c349,305$266,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266,853.8212570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Lions6c334,006$20,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,084.4417823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Lions23c226,024$51,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,928.873650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Commanders34c221,936$76,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145,618.564755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked Commanders18c220,518$39,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,824.83943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Commanders75c214,975$161,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,272.441833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Commanders27c172,622$46,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,293.9520634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Lions32c92,790$29,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,354.5325137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Commanders20c71,340$14,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,257.879259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Commanders37c62,206$23,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,186.084360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Commanders64c56,062$36,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,951.493976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f44…3ae9backed Lions78c45,488$35,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,430.242128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Commanders41c42,997$17,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,214.155644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…275abacked Commanders49c41,307$20,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,020.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lions7c35,779$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.6231848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Commanders35c34,438$12,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,254.258218.3%15 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders18c32,000$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,239.8116545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Commanders29c25,280$7,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,942.682250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Commanders19c23,789$4,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,269.48933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders54c22,744$12,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,478.9860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Commanders19c20,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,2009645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Commanders19c17,345$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,128.687041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Commanders19c16,993$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,830.8427339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Lions9c16,960$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a6…d1e9backed Commanders18c16,777$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,710.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+82.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Commanders19c15,016$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,232.7813450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Commanders31c14,817$4,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,296.4421251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Commanders52c14,399$7,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,949.1414457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Commanders51c12,880$6,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,321.0136246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0b…ef7bbacked Commanders21c11,684$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,184.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+133.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Lions53c11,670$6,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,18514147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Lions47c11,454$5,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,377.0225643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Lions57c11,094$6,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,321.881050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Lions73c10,910$7,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,985.062268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Commanders19c10,873$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,772.598951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Commanders18c10,700$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7741513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Commanders38c10,006$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,180.8929356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Lions1c10,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-86.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed Commanders52c9,788$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,702.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Commanders20c9,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20019864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Lions76c9,000$6,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8303941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Commanders37c8,690$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,492.16752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa329…b8ecbacked Commanders39c8,666$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,312.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187c…ca3cbacked Lions0c8,585$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Lions12c7,765$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.9144246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Commanders61c7,751$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.72665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Commanders19c7,563$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,126.267541.3%31 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Lions58c7,527$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,361.799724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Commanders53c7,101$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.651330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Lions69c7,019$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.148953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Lions39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,73010334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Commanders18c7,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,74014837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Lions14c6,946$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.6620440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Commanders21c6,842$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,422.1111139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Commanders54c6,423$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.661464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Commanders63c6,365$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.3510960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3275…e7fcbacked Lions72c6,292$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5004042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Lions2c6,163$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.923112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Lions73c6,000$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,389.9910768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Commanders25c5,992$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,506.5910624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x744b…6132backed Lions75c5,318$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c51…827ebacked Commanders19c5,263$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Lions1c5,041$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.887526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Commanders20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0007754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Lions69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b2…66d8backed Commanders74c4,875$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.581471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x804f…5e90backed Commanders17c4,631$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+499.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe34e…bd53backed Lions12c4,521$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Lions59c4,520$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.282420.8%5 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-59.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x71bc…28f4backed Lions51c4,500$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Lions68c4,453$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.6516259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Commanders19c4,199$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.128447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…22f4backed Commanders53c4,150$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.092133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Commanders46c4,099$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.088650%43 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Lions67c4,025$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.0120733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…5c65backed Commanders20c4,005$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Commanders17c4,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3209732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94f…8936backed Commanders52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Lions58c3,997$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.516758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Commanders40c3,709$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.172520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f6…42e5backed Lions43c3,658$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions77c3,563$2,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.414445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Commanders77c3,164$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.0910763.6%68 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed Lions2c3,095$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.623531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Lions2c2,982$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.811128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Lions40c2,866$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.3613942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf1…7fc8backed Lions77c2,809$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.053243.8%14 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-34.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Commanders66c2,660$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Lions38c2,652$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.5480%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6bb…b3f0backed Commanders19c2,568$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.651533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Commanders18c2,558$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.9811738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Commanders19c2,550$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.54226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Commanders37c2,422$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.1723850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db4…f9dfbacked Commanders19c2,325$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.56520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4258…feecbacked Lions32c2,297$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Commanders19c2,293$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.6220555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Commanders53c2,225$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.013844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Commanders16c2,095$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.483030%9 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Commanders48c2,069$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.343450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Commanders18c2,067$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.672055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.