TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Nickal vs. Craig

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nickalof Nickal, Craig
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$357,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e3…c7f2backed Craig11c44,593$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Nickal78c32,207$25,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,203.621450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Craig13c15,408$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Craig10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9916049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Craig12c8,530$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.68137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick35cpaid-88.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Craig1c7,484$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.88714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…c29cbacked Craig14c7,145$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a8…b7b9backed Craig13c6,110$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.49683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick37cpaid+133.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5eb7…96d7backed Craig10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Craig12c3,806$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.2835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588c…698abacked Craig11c2,963$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Craig12c2,915$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.263040%12 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f3…2f94backed Craig17c2,127$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d8…e680backed Craig13c2,025$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64e…f040backed Craig17c1,882$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+86.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae2…2b63backed Craig20c1,879$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd937…c0d6backed Craig14c1,844$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3220…cba1backed Craig11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd35d…7089backed Craig15c1,707$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c4…cbe5backed Craig12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7d3…3c57backed Craig12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2c…a4cebacked Craig11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Craig12c1,286$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Craig9c1,234$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.621031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Craig11c1,200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34f…1c95backed Craig22c1,100$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked Craig20c1,084$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Craig9c1,070$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.333557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6434…cdbebacked Craig11c1,062$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Craig3c1,018$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Craig11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Craig10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x613b…573abacked Craig13c978.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Craig11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Nickal77c803.05$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4237754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Craig22c764.35$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.946349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49a4…2d5dbacked Craig14c712.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef6…eb68backed Craig12c702.39$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.43128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nickal79c700$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14442042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed Craig12c696.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Craig11c636.36$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203f…8e77backed Craig19c615$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…599fbacked Craig34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc67c…9af7backed Craig12c539.46$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ac…cfa2backed Craig12c534.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcc8…35aebacked Craig16c532.62$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x934f…f0babacked Craig4c530.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae4…d0c5backed Craig13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Craig11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Craig17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab18…737bbacked Craig11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1b…7b93backed Craig11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed Craig19c422.5$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56d…eda0backed Craig11c413.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f64…9e59backed Craig16c402.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Craig16c393.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…e07bbacked Craig12c391.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524a…dcadbacked Craig13c387$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11ca…bc9dbacked Craig13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a6…8e62backed Craig26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048d…ef18backed Craig13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8c…e85abacked Craig13c381.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde35…b833backed Craig20c360.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…2fa6backed Craig28c360.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85cd…6e57backed Craig12c308.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b65…791abacked Craig13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8daf…8c4abacked Craig29c307.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Craig13c305.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b30…58fbbacked Nickal78c303.62$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x796b…f991backed Craig15c303.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffab…78babacked Craig10c299.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2d…c1e2backed Craig21c297.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…258cbacked Craig14c287.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…59a1backed Craig13c253$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6680%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cf2…74b0backed Craig19c252.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Craig12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fea…8f7bbacked Craig13c247.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Craig16c246.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Craig13c246.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-69.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbb9…0efbbacked Craig8c220.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Craig12c212.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2697…4368backed Craig12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Craig17c205$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.453956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6532…e7c1backed Craig12c201.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82e…a9fdbacked Craig25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Craig11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8620…cb72backed Craig11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…298bbacked Craig13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55a…32e3backed Craig25c199.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd478…6f9fbacked Craig26c194.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Craig11c182.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1312147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Craig11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7f…e26bbacked Craig29c174.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb483…0461backed Craig18c170.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1e…1b05backed Craig21c170.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf893…ebf1backed Craig12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e4…b725backed Craig12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd82…1989backed Craig22c161.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c4…94b5backed Craig19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12e…ec0dbacked Craig13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.