UFC · resolved market
Nickal vs. Craig
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55c57feb58c339a0f6517baac9d62743a231845abd681ff08f002bc510efd27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nickalof Nickal, Craig
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e3…c7f2backed Craig | 11c | 44,593$4,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…122bbacked Nickal | 78c | 32,207$25,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,203.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Craig | 13c | 15,408$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Craig | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Craig | 12c | 8,530$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Craig | 1c | 7,484$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…c29cbacked Craig | 14c | 7,145$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…b7b9backed Craig | 13c | 6,110$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 37cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…96d7backed Craig | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Craig | 12c | 3,806$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.28 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…698abacked Craig | 11c | 2,963$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Craig | 12c | 2,915$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…2f94backed Craig | 17c | 2,127$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…e680backed Craig | 13c | 2,025$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…f040backed Craig | 17c | 1,882$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…2b63backed Craig | 20c | 1,879$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…c0d6backed Craig | 14c | 1,844$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…cba1backed Craig | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Craig | 15c | 1,707$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…cbe5backed Craig | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d3…3c57backed Craig | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…a4cebacked Craig | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Craig | 12c | 1,286$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Craig | 9c | 1,234$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Craig | 11c | 1,200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…1c95backed Craig | 22c | 1,100$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Craig | 20c | 1,084$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Craig | 9c | 1,070$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Craig | 11c | 1,062$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Craig | 3c | 1,018$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Craig | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Craig | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…573abacked Craig | 13c | 978.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Craig | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Nickal | 77c | 803.05$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Craig | 22c | 764.35$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49a4…2d5dbacked Craig | 14c | 712.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed Craig | 12c | 702.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nickal | 79c | 700$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Craig | 12c | 696.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Craig | 11c | 636.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…8e77backed Craig | 19c | 615$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…599fbacked Craig | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9af7backed Craig | 12c | 539.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…cfa2backed Craig | 12c | 534.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…35aebacked Craig | 16c | 532.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f0babacked Craig | 4c | 530.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…d0c5backed Craig | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Craig | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Craig | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…737bbacked Craig | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…7b93backed Craig | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Craig | 19c | 422.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…eda0backed Craig | 11c | 413.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…9e59backed Craig | 16c | 402.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Craig | 16c | 393.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…e07bbacked Craig | 12c | 391.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…dcadbacked Craig | 13c | 387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…bc9dbacked Craig | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8e62backed Craig | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…ef18backed Craig | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…e85abacked Craig | 13c | 381.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…b833backed Craig | 20c | 360.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…2fa6backed Craig | 28c | 360.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…6e57backed Craig | 12c | 308.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked Craig | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…8c4abacked Craig | 29c | 307.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Craig | 13c | 305.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…58fbbacked Nickal | 78c | 303.62$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…f991backed Craig | 15c | 303.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…78babacked Craig | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2d…c1e2backed Craig | 21c | 297.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…258cbacked Craig | 14c | 287.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…59a1backed Craig | 13c | 253$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…74b0backed Craig | 19c | 252.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Craig | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Craig | 13c | 247.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Craig | 16c | 246.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Craig | 13c | 246.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb9…0efbbacked Craig | 8c | 220.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Craig | 12c | 212.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2697…4368backed Craig | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Craig | 17c | 205$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…e7c1backed Craig | 12c | 201.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…a9fdbacked Craig | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Craig | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8620…cb72backed Craig | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…298bbacked Craig | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…32e3backed Craig | 25c | 199.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…6f9fbacked Craig | 26c | 194.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Craig | 11c | 182.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Craig | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…e26bbacked Craig | 29c | 174.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb483…0461backed Craig | 18c | 170.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1e…1b05backed Craig | 21c | 170.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf893…ebf1backed Craig | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…b725backed Craig | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…1989backed Craig | 22c | 161.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c4…94b5backed Craig | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…ec0dbacked Craig | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nickal vs. Craigthis page
- Araujo vs. SilvaAraujo won
- Jones vs. MiocicJones won
- Oliveira vs. ChandlerOliveira won
- Ruffy vs. LlontopRuffy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.