TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa55a…32e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Boxing, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 52 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT4341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.58
Magic vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$144
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Jazz vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+300%+$225
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+86.7%+$119
Trail Blazers vs. Bucksbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+177.2%+$69.26
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$28.8
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+108.3%+$104
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$78.23
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$25
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+85.2%+$82.63
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST+177.8%+$178.74
Bucks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+85.2%+$54.39
Knicks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$65.69
Jazz vs. Trail Blazersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+71.4%+$71.44
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$150
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$14.5
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+334.8%+$167.39
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-78.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Song vs. Salikhovbacked Song · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$11.23
Nickal vs. Craigbacked Craig · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+58.7%+$83.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$10.21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.