UFC · resolved market
Song vs. Salikhov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9252850919a1b7524d60aac2ecf5b2d249930b292bf336fc66e3e8dd155a20c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Salikhovof Song, Salikhov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Salikhov | 65c | 999.98$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Song | 35c | 714.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…4bb7backed Salikhov | 66c | 394.48$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Song | 34c | 299.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Song | 37c | 223.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Song | 35c | 171.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Song | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…d744backed Song | 35c | 141.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Song | 36c | 117.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Salikhov | 62c | 103.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Salikhov | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Song | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…2c41backed Song | 38c | 87.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…44b7backed Salikhov | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed Salikhov | 63c | 75.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Song | 35c | 65.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Salikhov | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Song | 37c | 50.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Salikhov | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Song | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Salikhov | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Song | 37c | 43.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Song | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…b11bbacked Salikhov | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…32e3backed Song | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e965backed Salikhov | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Song | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Salikhov | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Song vs. Salikhovthis page
- Cong vs. FernandesFernandes won
- Oezdemir vs. UlbergUlberg won
- Yan vs. FigueiredoYan won
- Yan vs. RicciYan won
- Zhang vs. DiazZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.