UFC · resolved market
Cong vs. Fernandes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe789c7596714af524fcedd8fd53d542ec56d98874f4fd41c0fae00e587506205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandesof Cong, Fernandes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Cong | 2c | 15,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Fernandes | 30c | 5,362$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Fernandes | 12c | 3,728$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.74 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Fernandes | 12c | 2,700$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.94 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Fernandes | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.5 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Fernandes | 12c | 1,085$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.53 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Fernandes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Fernandes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.38 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Fernandes | 13c | 360.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Fernandes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…78babacked Fernandes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Fernandes | 13c | 182.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Fernandes | 11c | 175.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.59 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Fernandes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…bcadbacked Fernandes | 13c | 141.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Fernandes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Fernandes | 13c | 133.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…f7fcbacked Fernandes | 13c | 129$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6f…7cdabacked Fernandes | 16c | 113.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Fernandes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Cong | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cong vs. Fernandesthis page
- Oezdemir vs. UlbergUlberg won
- Song vs. SalikhovSalikhov won
- Yan vs. FigueiredoYan won
- Yan vs. RicciYan won
- Zhang vs. DiazZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.