UFC · resolved market
Zhang vs. Diaz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8f40b6bd572512fc0a1e298eb335a19d07ad3bc2481235dd47107bd6bab224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Zhang, Diaz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Diaz | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Diaz | 27c | 2,565$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.37 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Zhang | 73c | 1,538$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.41 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…48a5backed Diaz | 31c | 1,495$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zhang | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Diaz | 34c | 586.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…d879backed Zhang | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Diaz | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Zhang | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Zhang | 65c | 373.98$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Zhang | 69c | 252.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Zhang | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Zhang | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Zhang | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Zhang | 75c | 107.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Diaz | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Zhang | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Zhang | 74c | 84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d86…4629backed Zhang | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…77f2backed Zhang | 69c | 60.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Diaz | 30c | 57.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Diaz | 26c | 56.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Zhang | 70c | 54.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Diaz | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Diaz | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Zhang | 68c | 48.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Zhang | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Zhang | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…42b5backed Zhang | 74c | 34.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…dafcbacked Zhang | 75c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Diaz | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Zhang | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…f63fbacked Zhang | 73c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zhang vs. Diazthis page
- Cong vs. FernandesFernandes won
- Oezdemir vs. UlbergUlberg won
- Song vs. SalikhovSalikhov won
- Yan vs. FigueiredoYan won
- Yan vs. RicciYan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.