UFC · resolved market
Oezdemir vs. Ulberg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282a06a131a887495494cb6f1247486823fe93c472dc1a791239b5bb4794fcfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ulbergof Oezdemir, Ulberg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Oezdemir | 29c | 2,862$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.08 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…122bbacked Ulberg | 70c | 2,264$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…48a5backed Oezdemir | 29c | 1,393$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Oezdemir | 31c | 1,113$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Ulberg | 71c | 1,036$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Oezdemir | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Ulberg | 79c | 757.58$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Ulberg | 71c | 699.98$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ulberg | 72c | 612.33$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1b…3b29backed Oezdemir | 29c | 477.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Oezdemir | 30c | 372.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ulberg | 68c | 371.57$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Ulberg | 69c | 344.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Ulberg | 72c | 317.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Oezdemir | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Ulberg | 70c | 290$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Oezdemir | 7c | 242.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Ulberg | 70c | 213.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…0467backed Ulberg | 70c | 177.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…ac53backed Oezdemir | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Ulberg | 71c | 146.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Ulberg | 72c | 139.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…6dacbacked Oezdemir | 33c | 139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Oezdemir | 32c | 134.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…8483backed Ulberg | 70c | 112.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…19d9backed Oezdemir | 45c | 110.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Ulberg | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Ulberg | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…78babacked Ulberg | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Ulberg | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…77f2backed Ulberg | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…4456backed Oezdemir | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Oezdemir | 29c | 74.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Ulberg | 71c | 67.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…562dbacked Oezdemir | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Ulberg | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Ulberg | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Ulberg | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…d97fbacked Oezdemir | 32c | 37.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Oezdemir | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…9e65backed Oezdemir | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…3ea0backed Ulberg | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Ulberg | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oezdemir vs. Ulbergthis page
- Cong vs. FernandesFernandes won
- Song vs. SalikhovSalikhov won
- Yan vs. FigueiredoYan won
- Yan vs. RicciYan won
- Zhang vs. DiazZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.