UFC · resolved market
Yan vs. Ricci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e75dfecbdbeb659674d06a41b34276c6a0f3991d9283196750fee95d6e9816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yanof Yan, Ricci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yan | 65c | 7,777$5,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.95 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Ricci | 35c | 4,974$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.89 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Ricci | 35c | 4,517$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yan | 65c | 1,160$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Ricci | 40c | 889.01$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Ricci | 35c | 785.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Ricci | 35c | 571.68$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…d879backed Yan | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…db49backed Yan | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Ricci | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…442abacked Yan | 65c | 402.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yan | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yan | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ricci | 36c | 342.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…9d56backed Yan | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Ricci | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Ricci | 46c | 201.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yan | 50c | 185.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…480ebacked Yan | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Yan | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Ricci | 34c | 149.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Ricci | 37c | 146.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Yan | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yan | 66c | 121.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yan | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yan | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Ricci | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…d6e2backed Yan | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Ricci | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…d744backed Yan | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…cba2backed Yan | 66c | 77.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Ricci | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Ricci | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Ricci | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Ricci | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yan | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…ac71backed Yan | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…9bb8backed Yan | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Ricci | 37c | 28.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yan | 54c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Yan | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yan vs. Riccithis page
- Cong vs. FernandesFernandes won
- Oezdemir vs. UlbergUlberg won
- Song vs. SalikhovSalikhov won
- Yan vs. FigueiredoYan won
- Zhang vs. DiazZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.