UFC · resolved market
Yan vs. Figueiredo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8d1c89f2810b7f965e9d6ce24cb91ffcf05185ccae20c63429c1e9d1cf6d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yanof Yan, Figueiredo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Figueiredo | 0c | 19,510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Figueiredo | 27c | 7,444$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.86 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…2becbacked Yan | 73c | 6,874$4,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yan | 73c | 6,698$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Figueiredo | 26c | 2,676$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Figueiredo | 4c | 1,867$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yan | 76c | 1,685$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.33 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yan | 71c | 1,580$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…1214backed Figueiredo | 29c | 1,210$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Figueiredo | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Figueiredo | 31c | 952.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Figueiredo | 26c | 899.93$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fd…a7dabacked Figueiredo | 27c | 861.22$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Figueiredo | 26c | 831.53$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 753.94$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Figueiredo | 28c | 739.68$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.11 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 718.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Yan | 70c | 565.97$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Figueiredo | 28c | 507$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…d879backed Yan | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yan | 71c | 477.13$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yan | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yan | 73c | 386.41$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Figueiredo | 28c | 360$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yan | 74c | 336.72$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Figueiredo | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…6f85backed Figueiredo | 28c | 323.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…774ebacked Figueiredo | 28c | 305$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…77f2backed Figueiredo | 31c | 268.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Figueiredo | 29c | 251.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…fbddbacked Yan | 73c | 206.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Figueiredo | 28c | 203.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…ee30backed Figueiredo | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…9d56backed Figueiredo | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked Yan | 75c | 198.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yan | 72c | 175.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Figueiredo | 21c | 160.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Figueiredo | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Figueiredo | 33c | 151.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Yan | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…edecbacked Figueiredo | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…480ebacked Figueiredo | 35c | 141.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Yan | 74c | 135.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…8ee9backed Yan | 74c | 121.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…432fbacked Yan | 72c | 115.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Figueiredo | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…4774backed Figueiredo | 28c | 107.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…2cb4backed Yan | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Figueiredo | 27c | 100.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…3395backed Figueiredo | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yan | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…786dbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 97.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…d744backed Figueiredo | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62af…c905backed Figueiredo | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Figueiredo | 32c | 94.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…197abacked Figueiredo | 30c | 91.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42e…5ca8backed Figueiredo | 28c | 82.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yan | 65c | 82.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yan | 60c | 79.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ed…e751backed Figueiredo | 28c | 76.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Figueiredo | 24c | 74.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Figueiredo | 28c | 72.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…7b99backed Yan | 73c | 69.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…9d58backed Figueiredo | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yan | 73c | 68.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…44b7backed Yan | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…df65backed Figueiredo | 28c | 66.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ad…c0b7backed Figueiredo | 29c | 66.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Figueiredo | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Yan | 73c | 62.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…0620backed Figueiredo | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Figueiredo | 32c | 59.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Figueiredo | 27c | 56.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Figueiredo | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…02e7backed Figueiredo | 28c | 54.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…83febacked Figueiredo | 27c | 53.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…520abacked Figueiredo | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…ed19backed Figueiredo | 28c | 53.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…4a3dbacked Figueiredo | 37c | 51.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…4456backed Yan | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Yan | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786a…ca8abacked Figueiredo | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Figueiredo | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…ac71backed Yan | 71c | 49.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…8ca5backed Yan | 74c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…3841backed Figueiredo | 25c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Figueiredo | 30c | 44.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…568dbacked Yan | 74c | 42.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…5bddbacked Yan | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…6182backed Yan | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Figueiredo | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed Yan | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…9bb8backed Yan | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…b11bbacked Yan | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…dafcbacked Yan | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…b66cbacked Yan | 73c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…4e3fbacked Yan | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…a406backed Yan | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yan vs. Figueiredothis page
- Cong vs. FernandesFernandes won
- Oezdemir vs. UlbergUlberg won
- Song vs. SalikhovSalikhov won
- Yan vs. RicciYan won
- Zhang vs. DiazZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.