TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Yan vs. Figueiredo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yanof Yan, Figueiredo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc633…b4e7backed Figueiredo0c19,510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.513831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Figueiredo27c7,444$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.86137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick35cpaid-88.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bea…2becbacked Yan73c6,874$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yan73c6,698$4,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.871855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Figueiredo26c2,676$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Figueiredo4c1,867$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.452650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yan76c1,685$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.3353956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yan71c1,580$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.682642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f6f…1214backed Figueiredo29c1,210$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.92268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Figueiredo30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Figueiredo31c952.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x119a…2192backed Figueiredo26c899.93$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.98425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0fd…a7dabacked Figueiredo27c861.22$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0a…63abbacked Figueiredo26c831.53$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.271330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Figueiredo28c753.94$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4319531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Figueiredo28c739.68$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1110149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Figueiredo28c718.59$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0310043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306b…3ec5backed Yan70c565.97$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Figueiredo28c507$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.964134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed21…d879backed Yan72c499.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yan71c477.13$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.15653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b9d…2461backed Yan74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.412556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Yan73c386.41$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.911181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick65cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Figueiredo28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.82634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yan74c336.72$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8939959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Figueiredo30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa165…6f85backed Figueiredo28c323.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d7…774ebacked Figueiredo28c305$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2601…77f2backed Figueiredo31c268.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f13…e5d9backed Figueiredo29c251.06$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7260%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc762…fbddbacked Yan73c206.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2686…7a67backed Figueiredo28c203.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa8…ee30backed Figueiredo28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa03…9d56backed Figueiredo28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…82babacked Yan75c198.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.918757.5%50 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Yan72c175.09$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.021050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Figueiredo21c160.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4221031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Figueiredo28c160.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ee…e21dbacked Figueiredo33c151.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…a644backed Yan74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fe…edecbacked Figueiredo25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edf…480ebacked Figueiredo35c141.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Yan74c135.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.352965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f10…8ee9backed Yan74c121.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9627…432fbacked Yan72c115.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Figueiredo27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711152.3%58 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe690…4774backed Figueiredo28c107.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10c4…429bbacked Figueiredo28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+46.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe65…2cb4backed Yan73c102.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080a…8b56backed Figueiredo27c100.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+96.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8bb…3395backed Figueiredo27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yan71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99cf…786dbacked Figueiredo28c97.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e5…d744backed Figueiredo31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62af…c905backed Figueiredo31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Figueiredo32c94.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6722…197abacked Figueiredo30c91.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Figueiredo28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd42e…5ca8backed Figueiredo28c82.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yan65c82.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.638751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Yan60c79.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.792857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ed…e751backed Figueiredo28c76.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Figueiredo24c74.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Figueiredo28c72.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ac…7b99backed Yan73c69.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.84862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9593…9d58backed Figueiredo29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yan73c68.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7713465.7%88 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x846a…44b7backed Yan74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a2…df65backed Figueiredo28c66.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ad…c0b7backed Figueiredo29c66.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Figueiredo23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Yan73c62.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.956563.1%41 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d9…0620backed Figueiredo28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61f…f90fbacked Figueiredo32c59.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…f4f1backed Figueiredo27c56.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3cec…abb3backed Figueiredo28c56.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.753842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x513d…02e7backed Figueiredo28c54.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…83febacked Figueiredo27c53.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa058…520abacked Figueiredo28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424b…ed19backed Figueiredo28c53.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5a…4a3dbacked Figueiredo37c51.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…4456backed Yan72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Yan70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x786a…ca8abacked Figueiredo28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a9b…1770backed Figueiredo27c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eab…ac71backed Yan71c49.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.39862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0707…8ca5backed Yan74c48.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.654100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d1…3841backed Figueiredo25c44.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked Figueiredo30c44.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.313132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e8…568dbacked Yan74c42.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2e…5bddbacked Yan72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371c…6182backed Yan74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Figueiredo27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb3…df33backed Yan74c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd6…9bb8backed Yan74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3926…b11bbacked Yan74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90b8…dafcbacked Yan75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…b66cbacked Yan73c28.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3090…4e3fbacked Yan70c28.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31d…a406backed Yan72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.783154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.