UFC · resolved market
Ruffy vs. Llontop
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x966e2aea09859fb76521eb261b0005b0601e5e097a76ce213537e2a9bc106d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruffyof Ruffy, Llontop
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Llontop | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Llontop | 14c | 9,420$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.62 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Llontop | 14c | 7,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Llontop | 17c | 5,949$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.41 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Llontop | 14c | 5,014$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.87 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…96d7backed Llontop | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Llontop | 8c | 4,363$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.81 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…698abacked Llontop | 12c | 2,815$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Llontop | 12c | 1,733$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Llontop | 12c | 1,616$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…cba1backed Llontop | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…a4cebacked Llontop | 12c | 1,510$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Llontop | 6c | 1,400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed Llontop | 16c | 1,400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Llontop | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Llontop | 6c | 1,155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Llontop | 13c | 1,100$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Llontop | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Llontop | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…cfa2backed Llontop | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…94e7backed Llontop | 6c | 892.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Llontop | 13c | 887.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…573abacked Llontop | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…59a1backed Llontop | 14c | 660$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Llontop | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4cc5backed Llontop | 3c | 413.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed Llontop | 14c | 364.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Llontop | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…e727backed Llontop | 7c | 356.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…ae90backed Llontop | 15c | 342.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Llontop | 13c | 334.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…4a5abacked Llontop | 13c | 320.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Llontop | 12c | 305.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Llontop | 13c | 305.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Llontop | 18c | 295.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Llontop | 13c | 288.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Llontop | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…74b0backed Llontop | 12c | 282.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Llontop | 22c | 275.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…09a0backed Llontop | 9c | 273.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Llontop | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Llontop | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Llontop | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Llontop | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…3116backed Llontop | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Llontop | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…b079backed Llontop | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…298bbacked Llontop | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…9d58backed Llontop | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…335dbacked Llontop | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…258cbacked Llontop | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…17e3backed Llontop | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Llontop | 15c | 150.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…737bbacked Llontop | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Llontop | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…6673backed Llontop | 14c | 143.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Llontop | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…5fbebacked Llontop | 7c | 141.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c4…94b5backed Llontop | 22c | 137.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Llontop | 10c | 123.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Llontop | 12c | 117.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Ruffy | 78c | 112.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74e…8f31backed Llontop | 14c | 107.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed Llontop | 12c | 107.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Llontop | 20c | 102.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Llontop | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Llontop | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1e…1b05backed Llontop | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ruffy | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Llontop | 13c | 83.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Llontop | 13c | 78.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…ab50backed Llontop | 14c | 73.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…6319backed Llontop | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruffy vs. Llontopthis page
- Araujo vs. SilvaAraujo won
- Jones vs. MiocicJones won
- Nickal vs. CraigNickal won
- Oliveira vs. ChandlerOliveira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.