UFC · resolved market
Araujo vs. Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e6ff0450d6bc769652470dab581e82e83fa3dc5f88b5ac4752faf6b1391c31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Araujoof Araujo, Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Araujo | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,299.93 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…c65dbacked Silva | 69c | 6,500$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…a4cebacked Araujo | 31c | 6,500$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,515 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Silva | 70c | 5,497$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Silva | 71c | 5,227$3,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,711.46 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…7944backed Silva | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…96d7backed Araujo | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Silva | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Araujo | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Araujo | 27c | 4,302$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,130.25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Araujo | 30c | 3,502$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.14 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Araujo | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Silva | 72c | 2,950$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.66 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Silva | 71c | 2,700$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Silva | 68c | 2,400$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Silva | 44c | 2,366$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Silva | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Silva | 70c | 1,921$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f0babacked Araujo | 28c | 1,800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Silva | 47c | 1,787$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d3…3c57backed Araujo | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…2feebacked Silva | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…23d7backed Silva | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…664cbacked Araujo | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Silva | 79c | 1,499$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…2f94backed Silva | 72c | 1,443$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Araujo | 70c | 1,435$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Silva | 73c | 1,303$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Araujo | 29c | 1,148$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed Silva | 73c | 1,099$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…122bbacked Silva | 63c | 1,050$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Araujo | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…d879backed Araujo | 28c | 999.97$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Silva | 72c | 999.95$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…e741backed Silva | 72c | 999.91$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Silva | 21c | 951.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Silva | 21c | 951.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Araujo | 21c | 791.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Araujo | 26c | 730.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.74 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…cfa2backed Silva | 66c | 717.31$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…1ed1backed Araujo | 75c | 627.56$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…cba1backed Araujo | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Araujo | 28c | 571.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.43 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Araujo | 31c | 557.63$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Araujo | 28c | 549.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Silva | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Araujo | 31c | 479.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…a028backed Araujo | 28c | 410.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Araujo | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Silva | 32c | 396.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Araujo | 17c | 380.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Silva | 64c | 371.77$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…35aebacked Silva | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Silva | 79c | 327.68$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…e26bbacked Silva | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed Silva | 71c | 299.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…c873backed Araujo | 28c | 265.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…59a1backed Silva | 78c | 263.16$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Araujo | 77c | 259.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…d4cdbacked Silva | 73c | 250.81$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Araujo | 31c | 219.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…a635backed Silva | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…3b11backed Araujo | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Araujo | 32c | 201.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Silva | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…0c1abacked Silva | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…cbdbbacked Silva | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Silva | 72c | 199.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…2c41backed Araujo | 39c | 197.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Araujo | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…e85abacked Araujo | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Araujo | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Silva | 68c | 177.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Araujo | 28c | 171.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Araujo | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…88d2backed Silva | 72c | 151.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Araujo | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Araujo | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Silva | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…7450backed Silva | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…f040backed Araujo | 27c | 128.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…3fd0backed Araujo | 24c | 126.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0522backed Silva | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Araujo | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…0cdbbacked Silva | 73c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Silva | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Silva | 71c | 106.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c4…94b5backed Araujo | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…204bbacked Araujo | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…fc95backed Silva | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…d866backed Araujo | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Araujo | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Silva | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Silva | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…7174backed Araujo | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Araujo | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…737bbacked Araujo | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Silva | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Araujo | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Araujo | 29c | 99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Araujo vs. Silvathis page
- Jones vs. MiocicJones won
- Nickal vs. CraigNickal won
- Oliveira vs. ChandlerOliveira won
- Ruffy vs. LlontopRuffy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.