TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,660,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,635,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,660,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd909…fd75backed Yes21c155,115$32,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,012.842050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes44c152,576$66,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,700.22015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No80c42,492$33,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,537.913243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x091c…5d48backed Yes9c36,623$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No52c35,541$18,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,922.923053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes9c29,667$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,734.36520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No71c28,525$20,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,287.7315743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No66c27,574$18,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,501.12458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2c…b691backed Yes18c27,132$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+278.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x29ca…54b1backed Yes11c25,559$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763.73837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No76c25,415$19,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,061.284445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No73c21,911$15,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,935.961643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No62c21,494$13,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,082.522650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes14c21,487$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes8c21,242$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.99270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae4…6974backed Yes9c20,827$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+80.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No63c18,627$11,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,853.82321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c7…32cbbacked Yes31c17,376$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,385.111546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes13c17,215$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.8734440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes24c15,567$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.728220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes7c15,317$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.972119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No66c14,613$9,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.0451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No79c14,347$11,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.8937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes9c14,300$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.5439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes4c14,285$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.193716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes8c12,745$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.327610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes11c12,438$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.46387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked Yes6c12,323$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb514…d3febacked Yes35c10,924$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No56c10,633$5,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,667.912445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No43c9,958$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,676.073941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No70c8,616$6,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.841275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…745cbacked Yes20c8,507$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.852133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No65c8,324$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.732552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes6c8,311$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.03714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabe…ee53backed Yes15c7,687$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No75c7,122$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.735749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No67c6,984$4,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb37…3c5bbacked Yes5c6,856$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes12c6,724$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.59402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes65c6,678$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.388749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes17c6,424$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.051513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No69c6,189$4,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No73c6,060$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.791866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes8c5,857$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.721315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No31c5,470$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.743339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a76…21e6backed Yes5c5,231$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+192.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x304a…1badbacked Yes13c5,071$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-64%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed Yes6c5,021$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.681421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c2…a169backed Yes15c4,948$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes59c4,852$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.6710639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No76c4,838$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.434940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes8c4,822$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.782737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No36c4,549$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.877247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No37c4,528$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,852.584257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe241…29febacked No73c4,336$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes10c4,333$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes41c4,288$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.492133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes3c4,033$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.586023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes19c4,031$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.21040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c4,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.14912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes5c3,999$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+95.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No44c3,735$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,105.547051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No57c3,317$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.4310139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No54c3,244$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.162157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…b805backed Yes1c3,242$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes12c3,000$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes13c3,000$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes6c2,954$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.261315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked Yes70c2,873$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.552176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No70c2,857$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.147445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf9…1289backed Yes13c2,851$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.952642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7720…7f9cbacked Yes7c2,787$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes24c2,591$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.142725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…d188backed Yes27c2,574$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes41c2,522$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.085121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed Yes10c2,473$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No73c2,400$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7441…0069backed No74c2,368$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ad6…8845backed Yes26c2,308$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.681330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb683…fecdbacked Yes7c2,300$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ac…2187backed Yes12c2,276$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.22214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes10c2,172$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.222552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27f…c5b7backed Yes28c2,146$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes59c2,128$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.757337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed No77c2,100$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed Yes12c2,070$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa718…0cf4backed Yes13c2,055$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No80c2,030$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.2531649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes9c2,007$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.525422.2%12 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3202263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2843…e0bbbacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No67c2,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.992055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8503…dc65backed Yes58c1,950$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4663…457abacked Yes21c1,855$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9883…eccebacked Yes61c1,814$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.1825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ead…8b4cbacked Yes52c1,810$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.73977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed No79c1,800$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick71cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes10c1,792$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b6…7687backed Yes6c1,731$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.