Middle East · resolved market
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ded9ba6b490fe08251a99734ad3eb396ba2daeb5c81af6f3fe91926b1d4af3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,660,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,635,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,660,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 21c | 155,115$32,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,012.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 44c | 152,576$66,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,700.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 80c | 42,492$33,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,537.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…5d48backed Yes | 9c | 36,623$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 52c | 35,541$18,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,922.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 9c | 29,667$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 71c | 28,525$20,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,287.73 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 66c | 27,574$18,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,501.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…b691backed Yes | 18c | 27,132$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +278.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…54b1backed Yes | 11c | 25,559$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 76c | 25,415$19,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,061.28 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 73c | 21,911$15,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,935.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 62c | 21,494$13,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,082.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 14c | 21,487$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 8c | 21,242$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.99 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed Yes | 9c | 20,827$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 63c | 18,627$11,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…32cbbacked Yes | 31c | 17,376$5,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,385.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 13c | 17,215$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.87 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 15,567$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 15,317$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.97 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 14,613$9,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.04 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 79c | 14,347$11,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.89 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 9c | 14,300$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.5 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,285$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.19 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 12,745$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.32 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 11c | 12,438$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.46 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,323$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…d3febacked Yes | 35c | 10,924$3,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,845.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 56c | 10,633$5,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,667.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 43c | 9,958$4,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,676.07 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 70c | 8,616$6,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…745cbacked Yes | 20c | 8,507$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 65c | 8,324$5,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes | 6c | 8,311$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 7,687$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 75c | 7,122$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.73 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 67c | 6,984$4,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…3c5bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,856$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 12c | 6,724$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.59 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 65c | 6,678$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,318.38 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 17c | 6,424$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 69c | 6,189$4,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.7 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d4b6backed No | 73c | 6,060$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,857$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 31c | 5,470$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.74 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…21e6backed Yes | 5c | 5,231$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…1badbacked Yes | 13c | 5,071$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 6c | 5,021$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…a169backed Yes | 15c | 4,948$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 59c | 4,852$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.67 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 76c | 4,838$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.43 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,822$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 36c | 4,549$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.87 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 37c | 4,528$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.58 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked No | 73c | 4,336$3,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,333$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 41c | 4,288$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 4,033$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes | 19c | 4,031$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes | 5c | 3,999$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 44c | 3,735$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.54 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 57c | 3,317$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.43 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 54c | 3,244$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…b805backed Yes | 1c | 3,242$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 6c | 2,954$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 70c | 2,873$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.55 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 70c | 2,857$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.14 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 13c | 2,851$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…7f9cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,787$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 24c | 2,591$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…d188backed Yes | 27c | 2,574$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 41c | 2,522$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.08 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 10c | 2,473$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 73c | 2,400$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…0069backed No | 74c | 2,368$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…8845backed Yes | 26c | 2,308$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…fecdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…2187backed Yes | 12c | 2,276$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,172$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…c5b7backed Yes | 28c | 2,146$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 59c | 2,128$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.75 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed No | 77c | 2,100$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 12c | 2,070$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…0cf4backed Yes | 13c | 2,055$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 80c | 2,030$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.25 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 9c | 2,007$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…e0bbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…dc65backed Yes | 58c | 1,950$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked Yes | 21c | 1,855$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…eccebacked Yes | 61c | 1,814$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…8b4cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,810$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 79c | 1,800$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…99c9backed Yes | 10c | 1,792$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…7687backed Yes | 6c | 1,731$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.