NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Timberwolves

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0931de464e8857f1c52afe5e0fc6e306aa9a83544808eec439b62d9f1a944902

Rebuilt 44 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Timberwolvesof Jazz, Timberwolves
Resolved: Mar 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $241,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,670 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb6dd…bf2bbacked Jazz	10c	27,500$2,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,752.38	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Jazz	1c	25,332$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.24	878	3%26 W · 852 L	-22.3wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-62%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Jazz	11c	20,000$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,299.96	964	47.8%461 W · 503 L	+35.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz	13c	10,472$1,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,381.33	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…b899backed Jazz	1c	10,067$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Jazz	5c	9,978$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.33	255	36.9%94 W · 161 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Jazz	6c	8,535$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.88	308	26.6%82 W · 226 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Jazz	13c	7,902$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.92	377	34%128 W · 249 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Jazz	1c	5,780$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	235	54.5%128 W · 107 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x674d…def3backed Jazz	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Jazz	13c	4,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.99	469	28.4%133 W · 336 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Jazz	2c	3,429$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.98	365	14.2%52 W · 313 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa33…8dbcbacked Jazz	7c	3,352$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.7	294	50.3%148 W · 146 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Jazz	4c	3,125$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	261	24.1%63 W · 198 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Jazz	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1,277	2.3%29 W · 1,248 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-84%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Jazz	1c	2,478$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	194	19.1%37 W · 157 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Jazz	7c	2,372$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.6	376	27.9%105 W · 271 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Jazz	1c	1,762$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	550	2.5%14 W · 536 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Jazz	12c	1,500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	457	43.3%198 W · 259 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Jazz	7c	1,402$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,888	37.3%704 W · 1,184 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x644c…8f6bbacked Jazz	8c	1,399$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.92	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz	9c	1,248$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.29	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8367…2a2abacked Jazz	5c	1,220$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.41	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Jazz	14c	1,100$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.6	169	28.4%48 W · 121 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb433…3ad5backed Jazz	13c	1,081$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.71	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Jazz	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	321	30.2%97 W · 224 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa38…ffb3backed Jazz	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	25.7%28 W · 81 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf585…f019backed Jazz	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…b24ebacked Jazz	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	161	29.8%48 W · 113 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Jazz	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	510	37.5%191 W · 319 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Jazz	13c	730.77$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	296	43.2%128 W · 168 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Jazz	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	893	53%473 W · 420 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Jazz	13c	700$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	364	23.4%85 W · 279 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9977…085fbacked Jazz	14c	634.48$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.75	166	17.5%29 W · 137 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Jazz	11c	516.45$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.81	618	35.4%219 W · 399 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Jazz	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	80	16.3%13 W · 67 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Jazz	13c	439.62$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.13	855	42%359 W · 496 L	+10.0wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Jazz	12c	410$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.22	172	56.4%97 W · 75 L	-8.9wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Jazz	11c	393.51$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	202	45.5%92 W · 110 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73c4…a92dbacked Jazz	14c	361.86$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.66	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…25b2backed Jazz	7c	359.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Jazz	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	174	64.9%113 W · 61 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Jazz	5c	245$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	123	4.9%6 W · 117 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Jazz	12c	228.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.45	195	35.4%69 W · 126 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0560…d77dbacked Jazz	11c	224.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Jazz	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	311	25.1%78 W · 233 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa9…39a1backed Jazz	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	487	41.9%204 W · 283 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Jazz	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,166	54.4%634 W · 532 L	+19.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Jazz	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	345	48.7%168 W · 177 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x621d…2e43backed Jazz	14c	168.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Jazz	13c	164.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	227	33%75 W · 152 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Jazz	12c	160$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	337	46.3%156 W · 181 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Jazz	11c	160$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	260	41.2%107 W · 153 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd07f…6c05backed Jazz	14c	157.86$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Jazz	10c	122.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98fd…fbb2backed Jazz	13c	119$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a0…16e9backed Jazz	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	718	23.3%167 W · 551 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…415ebacked Jazz	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	316	31.6%100 W · 216 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454b…fed3backed Jazz	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a31…ca79backed Jazz	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…9568backed Jazz	14c	93.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Timberwolves

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market