World Politics · resolved market
Will Mahamudu Bawumia be the next President of Ghana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ad01504ee5d6f159ea41c7f4967ad84435e9846b50d612b36de59ed2db313e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 28,596$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 9c | 21,634$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.39 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…5775backed Yes | 3c | 10,734$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 0c | 7,090$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 18c | 3,093$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.65 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 18c | 2,860$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.85 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,780$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 7c | 1,548$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,512$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 14c | 1,091$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 1c | 1,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 11c | 1,053$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.93 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd186…38a9backed Yes | 10c | 725.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 11c | 504$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 494.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…cc7bbacked Yes | 10c | 482.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…1b7abacked Yes | 7c | 396.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 66c | 360$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 35c | 340$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…1d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 272$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…b086backed Yes | 9c | 267$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 9c | 212.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 6c | 200.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -89%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 103.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…a8bbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…d811backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mahamudu Bawumia be the next President of Ghana?this page
- Will Alan John Kyerematen be the next President of Ghana?No won
- Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana?Yes won
- Will Nana Kwame Bediako be the next President of Ghana?No won
- Will someone else be the next President of Ghana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.