TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2a2…8471backed Lightning63c76,003$47,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,121.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+164.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64dc…ad9ebacked Canadiens37c76,000$28,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,12020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Canadiens6c8,375$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.6332331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Canadiens14c3,505$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2241340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61c…5953backed Canadiens39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.971540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22a…f94abacked Lightning61c2,998$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.221560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Canadiens38c2,962$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.4825340.7%103 W · 150 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2558…dfcbbacked Canadiens42c2,640$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf8…e331backed Lightning58c2,239$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+125.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning62c2,013$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.2386649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Canadiens38c1,902$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.7629847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd483…0e7abacked Lightning58c1,792$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49eb…bffbbacked Canadiens42c1,707$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Canadiens42c1,676$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.8918520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Lightning62c1,396$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7722842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning63c1,341$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.171,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Canadiens37c1,190$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.3549351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x193d…2eb4backed Canadiens9c1,074$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004330.2%13 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Canadiens16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Lightning60c931.61$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.656357.1%36 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2baa…279cbacked Canadiens42c799.98$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Lightning58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.662650%13 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning63c659$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8375155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Canadiens42c642.06$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.038932.6%29 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaf…e782backed Canadiens38c639.06$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.842619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning62c596.79$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.781,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lightning61c592$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8879251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b1…20f7backed Lightning58c540$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lightning64c538.29$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5472847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7797…14a7backed Lightning64c495.31$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…9c99backed Canadiens37c494.6$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf482…d3c3backed Canadiens35c428.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.383141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Canadiens14c358.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning59c357.2$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7384051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Canadiens7c354.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.481895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe756…c70cbacked Canadiens6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3186…4e11backed Lightning58c317.67$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Canadiens39c294.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1672444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x034b…8bc0backed Canadiens40c289.03$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.613452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x896d…67d6backed Lightning58c260$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Canadiens39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038040.5%154 W · 226 L-16.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Canadiens40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Canadiens14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354450%22 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Lightning61c246$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9460549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7079…a828backed Lightning62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.94966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Canadiens7c209.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b59…b31bbacked Lightning59c180.39$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.37683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5889…f416backed Canadiens40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning59c170.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.721,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Canadiens11c160.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.132352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9a…a785backed Lightning64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Canadiens38c149.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.299251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Lightning61c148$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7248149.3%237 W · 244 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a73…91ccbacked Canadiens12c144.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Canadiens11c132.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1554418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae1e…7c4cbacked Lightning57c120$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+60.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Canadiens43c116.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Lightning59c110$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.319347.2%91 W · 102 L-14.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Lightning61c106.43$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5111354%61 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba7…f213backed Canadiens37c103.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.122352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…ed1ebacked Lightning64c100.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.841450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4166951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Lightning62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3826059.6%155 W · 105 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Lightning62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Canadiens37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3727643.5%120 W · 156 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9c…842bbacked Lightning61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+64.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1720…ef36backed Canadiens40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Lightning62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3850049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Canadiens13c99.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9291334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ce…b4e3backed Lightning66c94.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76a2…1f3cbacked Canadiens43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406137.7%23 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x235d…315dbacked Canadiens37c92.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed Canadiens25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7517054.7%93 W · 77 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ed…44d5backed Canadiens43c79.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…9093backed Lightning61c78.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.698638.4%33 W · 53 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf26…b387backed Lightning63c66.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.674141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d4…2f06backed Lightning59c64.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.422657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec9e…49a2backed Canadiens42c61.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x794c…628ebacked Lightning60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Lightning58c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…b9f9backed Lightning58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2155…cca3backed Lightning61c50.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…4831backed Lightning58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f51…91aabacked Canadiens40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Canadiens35c48.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.972448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d3a…b6afbacked Canadiens42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0867…bc19backed Canadiens41c44.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Lightning59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.374240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ea…2dd0backed Lightning59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.372857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f99…b948backed Canadiens42c40.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2deb…fb92backed Lightning59c39.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5744…8884backed Lightning54c38.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b3…98b9backed Canadiens41c38.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3010…9f98backed Lightning59c36.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c5…bc0abacked Canadiens41c36.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fc…a203backed Canadiens42c35.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddf…23a1backed Canadiens41c34.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97d6…160fbacked Lightning59c34.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Lightning76c34.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0645954.2%249 W · 210 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.