TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x034b…8bc0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST4252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$23.33
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$51.05
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+270.4%+$54.33
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+163.2%+$175.46
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$120.61
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$55.41
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$120.18
Heat vs. Bucksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$61.57
Suns vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$61.16
Timberwolves vs. Rocketsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$85.89
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$101.45
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+88.7%+$78.47
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+130.5%+$240.22
Grizzlies vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+117.4%+$98.82
Kenny's Young Stars vs. Chuck's Global Starsbacked Kenny's Young Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$128.9
Heat vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$114.89
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$86.63
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$71.99
76ers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+140.2%+$139.62
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$116.65
Hornets vs. Netsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$76.11
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$55.8
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$88.19
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+163.2%+$131.63
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+163.2%+$187.82
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2025, EST3452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+300%+$54.71
Canucks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+100%+$97.97
Lightning vs. Capitalsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+96.1%+$48.02
Wild vs. Utahbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$99.31
Jets vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$193.09
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+194.1%+$264.48
Avalanche vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+143.9%+$196.09
Stars vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$137.12
Oilers vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+178.3%+$372.89
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$115.61
Golden Knights vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$137.04
Maple Leafs vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$62.71
Panthers vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$61.17
Hurricanes vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+168.9%+$183.53
Senators vs. Lightningbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$131.84
Golden Knights vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$82.83
Canadiens vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$50.54
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+150%+$70.93
Jets vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$113
Kings vs. Panthersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$54.44
Flyers vs. Devilsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$57.12
Jets vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$50.54
Devils vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+132.6%+$77.53
Wild vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$44.06
Avalanche vs. Rangersbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+122.2%+$115.51
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT2937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$221.8
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$702.37
Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$25.46
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$29.05
Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+100%+$24.63
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$143.88
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+84.6%+$273.37
Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+96.1%+$79.87
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$229.79
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$296.06
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$145.04
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$121.81
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$152.22
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+104.1%+$75.05
Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$308.49
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$200.54
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+70.9%+$195.37
FA Cup: Preston North End vs. Wycombe Wanderers (To Advance)backed Wycombe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$69.02
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$141.84
Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+177.8%+$148.86
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$82.2
Will Everton win on 2025-01-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$105.73
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$83.72
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+156.4%+$68.81
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20.87
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+108.3%+$255.88
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+127.3%+$49.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariners vs. Padresbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$28.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Morales vs. Smithbacked Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+92.3%+$94.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$48.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NHL 4 Nations: Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.