MLB · resolved market
Mariners vs. Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e94d0318ba35b9edde5c5a1219e59333f16bfeeb1a9bdd4eca20099e9749f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Mariners, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Padres | 52c | 15,976$8,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,278.47 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners | 66c | 4,989$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.95 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Padres | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Padres | 6c | 3,990$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.06 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Mariners | 43c | 3,499$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.43 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mariners | 71c | 3,482$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 42c | 3,031$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.68 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Padres | 25c | 2,700$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Padres | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 63c | 2,401$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.83 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 42c | 1,839$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.78 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Padres | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Mariners | 43c | 1,490$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mariners | 57c | 1,159$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.59 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 3c | 1,025$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Padres | 30c | 994.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres | 58c | 685.27$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.79 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…3a6cbacked Mariners | 42c | 681.5$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.27 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mariners | 55c | 656.78$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Mariners | 70c | 555.5$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Mariners | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners | 42c | 388.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Mariners | 67c | 387$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 72c | 355.31$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Padres | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked Mariners | 76c | 343.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Mariners | 30c | 297.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Mariners | 78c | 257.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Padres | 58c | 256.48$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Padres | 17c | 243.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mariners | 55c | 240.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Padres | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Mariners | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Padres | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Padres | 36c | 112.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mariners | 59c | 108.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Mariners | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Mariners | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…5857backed Mariners | 76c | 88.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Padres | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners | 49c | 75.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…8bc0backed Mariners | 43c | 50.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Mariners | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Padres | 58c | 38.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Padres | 57c | 38.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Padres | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…c2c4backed Padres | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners | 44c | 33.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Mariners | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Padres | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…4226backed Mariners | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5080…610bbacked Mariners | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Padres | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Padres | 58c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.