TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

NHL 4 Nations: Canada vs. USA

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof Canada, USA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb786…b18dbacked USA54c5,500$2,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canada44c4,247$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.711457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed USA50c3,120$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed USA64c2,500$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed USA51c2,039$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canada51c1,953$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Canada51c1,942$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Canada43c1,910$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked USA48c1,851$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.547650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed USA50c1,738$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed USA51c1,600$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked USA48c1,399$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4407…8f2bbacked Canada51c1,274$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.1160%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb30c…fc14backed Canada5c1,215$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked USA49c1,150$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Canada51c1,134$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.212240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…fbdcbacked USA50c1,011$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.45966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Canada22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked USA78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Canada50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Canada49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…8a64backed Canada51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Canada51c943.14$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed USA50c924.7$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb011…d5dabacked Canada52c870.9$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked USA49c765$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked USA49c764.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed USA79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Canada51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.6wins-0.40per pick51cpaid-84.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Canada49c599.99$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3a…16fbbacked USA49c573.85$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Canada21c528.91$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1100…0060backed USA48c518.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Canada52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked USA49c433$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd703…fb35backed Canada51c402.32$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c4a…15c7backed USA50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Canada52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdd…5905backed Canada52c369.23$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae7…4602backed Canada52c369.2$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac1…93c7backed USA52c362.86$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…1ddabacked USA45c350$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c3…6ed4backed Canada52c320.83$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…4e12backed Canada52c273.85$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x902e…b45dbacked Canada52c257.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07e1…e922backed Canada52c256.11$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aff…ea51backed Canada36c249.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked USA49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b4…bb83backed Canada52c201.91$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed USA76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486336.5%23 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x034b…8bc0backed Canada51c197.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1354…318ebacked Canada51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed Canada53c190.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed USA51c169.98$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Canada52c160.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d52…c840backed Canada60c151.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6650%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed USA50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd202…03f2backed Canada67c148.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Canada50c147$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Canada35c145$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79d…779cbacked USA75c137.03$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Canada50c121.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…c4adbacked Canada34c117.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e1…22bfbacked Canada54c113.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed USA50c108.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd13…a813backed USA51c101.96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed USA50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ac…c1cfbacked Canada52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1953…9e2ebacked Canada16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed USA48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5945…ac63backed USA50c98.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a1…3f08backed USA51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked USA51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.04850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfb…bea8backed Canada52c97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Canada52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5a…a3a4backed Canada52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c30…6429backed USA49c90.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d11…0464backed Canada52c90.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…de7bbacked USA52c86.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Canada51c83.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Canada50c75.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canada49c71.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed USA51c65.41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Canada45c64.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd88f…8d2cbacked Canada32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick23cpaid+249.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Canada52c47.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+53.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f36…2305backed Canada59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9146…293abacked USA50c41.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf746…9ac7backed Canada68c40.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed USA47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9367…f92cbacked Canada50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c6d…8b10backed Canada50c38.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb71…e279backed Canada52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf40e…64f5backed Canada52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d12…4bc0backed Canada52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e9…ba9abacked USA51c31.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…3289backed USA45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd380…62d6backed Canada52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3400…0dcdbacked Canada55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b67…d01fbacked USA50c20.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.