UFC · resolved market
Morales vs. Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ce0138d5541951541076a5b8e08428db10816a06137c6f93f90fc898ddf2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Smithof Morales, Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Morales | 1c | 110,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Smith | 54c | 4,343$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.02 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Morales | 45c | 2,978$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.58 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Morales | 47c | 2,241$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Smith | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Morales | 47c | 1,792$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.03 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Morales | 22c | 1,073$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.93 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Morales | 46c | 932.88$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.68 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Smith | 56c | 857.47$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.47 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Smith | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Smith | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Morales | 44c | 507.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Morales | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Smith | 55c | 471.13$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Morales | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Smith | 48c | 277.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Smith | 51c | 236.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Morales | 43c | 232.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Morales | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Smith | 61c | 199.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…8bc0backed Smith | 52c | 196.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Smith | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…a9f8backed Smith | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Smith | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Smith | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Morales | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Morales | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Morales | 45c | 128.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Smith | 60c | 126.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Morales | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Morales | 10c | 110.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Morales | 37c | 104.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Smith | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Smith | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…40d5backed Morales | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…52ddbacked Smith | 53c | 76.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…1cf6backed Smith | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Smith | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…1c4abacked Smith | 59c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Smith | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Smith | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…3836backed Smith | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Morales | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Smith | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Morales | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Smith | 41c | 48.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…fc6abacked Smith | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Morales | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Morales | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Smith | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Smith | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…4fbdbacked Smith | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Smith | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…0c45backed Smith | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Morales | 63c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Morales | 46c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…ea98backed Smith | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…4258backed Morales | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…fd87backed Morales | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…ac40backed Morales | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b75…7aa2backed Morales | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…0492backed Smith | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Smith | 60c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…98f8backed Morales | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…70ecbacked Smith | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…e63cbacked Smith | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371d…6b19backed Smith | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a58…5e2fbacked Smith | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Morales vs. Smiththis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.