UFC · resolved market
Bonfim vs. Sadykhov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9747a5607b9278c8a84db11306eb49486cbacd31a727586b2feb9d6faf0ca4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sadykhovof Bonfim, Sadykhov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Bonfim | 68c | 1,713$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Sadykhov | 71c | 1,600$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.35 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bonfim | 65c | 1,262$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.99 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Bonfim | 9c | 1,203$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Sadykhov | 32c | 1,170$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.58 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Sadykhov | 32c | 1,142$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.56 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Sadykhov | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sadykhov | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonfim | 65c | 813.53$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Bonfim | 68c | 751.92$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.31 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Bonfim | 67c | 743.13$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…31a7backed Sadykhov | 34c | 727.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bonfim | 64c | 661.82$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.5 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Sadykhov | 33c | 643$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.81 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bonfim | 66c | 567.99$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.87 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Bonfim | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Bonfim | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…941abacked Sadykhov | 35c | 474.29$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Sadykhov | 35c | 460.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Bonfim | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Sadykhov | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Sadykhov | 17c | 356$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bonfim | 65c | 347$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.38 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sadykhov | 35c | 334.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Sadykhov | 34c | 299.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.58 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Bonfim | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Bonfim | 67c | 285.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Sadykhov | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Sadykhov | 31c | 261.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Sadykhov | 43c | 234.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bonfim | 65c | 197.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Sadykhov | 36c | 180.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bonfim | 65c | 151.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Bonfim | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Bonfim | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…49aabacked Bonfim | 66c | 149.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Bonfim | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…b606backed Sadykhov | 35c | 114.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Sadykhov | 37c | 107.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…a666backed Sadykhov | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Bonfim | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Sadykhov | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…a2a0backed Sadykhov | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…feb1backed Bonfim | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Sadykhov | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…49b2backed Bonfim | 67c | 94.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Bonfim | 68c | 92.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Bonfim | 68c | 89.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Sadykhov | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Sadykhov | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Sadykhov | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…9e40backed Sadykhov | 27c | 54.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Bonfim | 66c | 40.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Sadykhov | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Bonfim | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Bonfim | 68c | 36.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…e03abacked Bonfim | 66c | 30.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Bonfim | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…ffa9backed Sadykhov | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…4fbdbacked Bonfim | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Bonfim | 68c | 29.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…7e2ebacked Bonfim | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Bonfim | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Bonfim | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Bonfim | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…0ed3backed Bonfim | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…6db9backed Bonfim | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…4acebacked Bonfim | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bonfim vs. Sadykhovthis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.