UFC · resolved market
Matthews vs. Delgado
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc7c49be52a5678229be766c66e5459b94de8cec6053590afcdc6ce755dad7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Delgadoof Matthews, Delgado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Matthews | 18c | 55,974$9,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,894.21 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Matthews | 17c | 25,000$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Matthews | 20c | 9,097$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.18 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Matthews | 20c | 3,639$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.32 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Matthews | 24c | 3,524$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.05 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Matthews | 13c | 2,885$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.05 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Delgado | 73c | 2,040$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Matthews | 24c | 2,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.8 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Matthews | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Delgado | 74c | 1,823$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Delgado | 75c | 1,458$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.92 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Delgado | 80c | 1,277$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Matthews | 18c | 1,112$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Matthews | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Matthews | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Matthews | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Matthews | 2c | 999.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Delgado | 75c | 933.33$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Delgado | 75c | 857$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Delgado | 80c | 845.5$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Delgado | 75c | 785.66$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Matthews | 20c | 682.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Matthews | 19c | 580$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Matthews | 25c | 396.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Matthews | 18c | 394.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Matthews | 17c | 294.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Delgado | 79c | 253.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…059bbacked Matthews | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Delgado | 73c | 210$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Delgado | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Matthews | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Matthews | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Matthews | 18c | 169.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Delgado | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…a2a0backed Matthews | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Matthews | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Delgado | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Matthews | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…4028backed Delgado | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…05debacked Delgado | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed Delgado | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Delgado | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Delgado | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Matthews vs. Delgadothis page
- Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
- Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
- Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
- Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
- Hill vs. SouzaHill won
- Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
- Morales vs. SmithSmith won
- Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
- Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
- Walker vs. MayesWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.