UFC · resolved market

Hill vs. Souza

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821e8edfd3f166baa9cab4f2527e698b0cf829652ded9de3f41d26d20594dae0

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hillof Hill, Souza
Resolved: Feb 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $141,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $184,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,984 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Souza	50c	70,120$34,857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34,857.06	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Hill	50c	37,801$18,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,880.6	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Hill	50c	24,980$12,490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,490	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed Hill	51c	16,505$8,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,065.75	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+80%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Souza	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Hill	49c	2,817$1,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,428.76	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Souza	12c	2,542$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.05	101	2%2 W · 99 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Souza	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Souza	47c	1,600$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.59	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7d…2040backed Hill	50c	1,598$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.6	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hill	49c	1,474$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.41	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Souza	52c	1,384$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.54	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Souza	49c	1,324$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.81	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Hill	50c	1,200$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Souza	50c	1,050$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Hill	57c	1,007$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.85	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Souza	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed Souza	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Hill	48c	789.22$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.39	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Souza	41c	729.64$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf35f…c62abacked Hill	50c	712.78$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.78	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hill	50c	545.62$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.23	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Souza	50c	519$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.5	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Souza	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-5.6wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Souza	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Hill	51c	441.18$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.18	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Souza	47c	418$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.34	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hill	50c	404.68$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.23	143	55.9%80 W · 63 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Souza	49c	380$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.2	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Souza	48c	347.78$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.28	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Souza	49c	312.38$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.07	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Hill	50c	220$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.2	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Hill	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…31a7backed Souza	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Hill	50c	200.76$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.76	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Souza	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Souza	35c	200$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Hill	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd348…22c4backed Hill	50c	169.99$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.09	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Souza	53c	151.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hill	55c	150$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…941abacked Hill	53c	149.06$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.06	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Souza	75c	133.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	140	45.7%64 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bff…e03abacked Hill	72c	125.01$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Souza	53c	118.87$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Hill	78c	112.56$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Hill	55c	107$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.15	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Souza	26c	100.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Hill	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb978…a2a0backed Souza	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Souza	28c	85.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Souza	27c	85.01$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Souza	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Souza	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Hill	47c	74.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41e…8d12backed Souza	51c	67.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…4df2backed Souza	42c	60.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Souza	51c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Hill	63c	54$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e7…8592backed Souza	52c	51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7311…6b60backed Hill	48c	51$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4353…0225backed Souza	51c	46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec4…0638backed Souza	35c	43.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Souza	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0baa…729dbacked Hill	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	47cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Hill	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	185	60%111 W · 74 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Souza	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	215	54.4%117 W · 98 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd7…7575backed Souza	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-5.3wins	-0.16per pick	40cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4bf1…b596backed Hill	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.32per pick	35cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcace…4fbdbacked Souza	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcde4…f179backed Souza	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9271…5ba1backed Souza	53c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x14a2…e231backed Souza	49c	34.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Hill	47c	34.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.25	80	60%48 W · 32 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a3…65f7backed Hill	49c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.34	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…9907backed Hill	48c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.16	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa1…078cbacked Souza	52c	33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Hill	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	104	39.4%41 W · 63 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed Souza	49c	23.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7d…cc85backed Souza	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x214c…e092backed Hill	49c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…19e7backed Souza	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e9…cb34backed Souza	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…9117backed Hill	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2575…59e5backed Souza	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Hill vs. Souzathis page
Avila vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
Bonfim vs. SadykhovSadykhov won
Bonfim vs. WilliamsBonfim won
Cannonier vs. RodriguesCannonier won
Estevam vs. AguilarEstevam won
Kattar vs. ZalalZalal won
Matthews vs. DelgadoDelgado won
Morales vs. SmithSmith won
Shahbazyan vs. BudkaShahbazyan won
Vieira vs. PetroskiPetroski won
Walker vs. MayesWalker won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hill vs. Souza

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event